Average day-ahead electricity prices for today have surpassed EUR 400 per MWh in several countries in Central and Eastern Europe, while the evening peaks have lately been the highest since the 2022 energy crisis. The effects of a surge in the prices of natural gas, which dictate the power market, have been exacerbated by the lack of wind and solar power. Southeastern Europe and Hungary often have the highest power prices.
Electricity prices at European exchanges have been rallying for more than a month to very concerning levels as the trend will likely spill over to costs borne by companies, institutions and households. The latest spike occurred amid a combination of weak wind and solar power output. The phenomenon is known as dunkelflaute, which is German for dark and windless.
Average day-ahead prices for today have surpassed EUR 400 per MWh in several countries in Central and Eastern Europe. The price in Poland is the highest, EUR 460 per MWh. In the region that Balkan Green Energy News tracks, electricity is the most expensive in Romania, EUR 411 per MWh, and Bulgaria, EUR 404 per MWh.
Evening peaks these days have even surpassed EUR 600 per MWh in several markets, posting levels unseen since the energy crisis in 2022. Colder-than-average weather contributed to the jump.
Southeastern Europe and Hungary have mostly had the highest prices lately, and it happens often.
Low gas inventories to keep market tight throughout winter
The most pressing issue is expensive natural gas, which dictates prices in the electricity market in the so-called marginal pricing mechanism. The war in the Persian Gulf and the surrounding region limited the availability of fossil fuels and commodities since February 28, though the prices of natural gas have advanced much faster than oil.
The International Energy Agency warned that gas inventories have dropped to the lowest level since 2013 for the current season. In case of a colder winter and continued supply disruptions, they could dip below 10% by the end of March, it said.
Analytics firm Kpler expects gas power plants to be necessary most of the time in major markets this winter. For instance, more than 70% in Germany and over 65% in France.
Notably, after topping EUR 100 per MWh late last month, the benchmark futures contract for Dutch TTF natural gas slid to EUR 82 per MWh. Gas power plant operators have, however, mostly bought the fuel ahead, when the prices were still substantially higher. Furthermore, the current level is more than two times higher than before the start of the war.
Hydropower plants would normally fill much of the gap, but rivers and reservoirs fell to extremely low levels in the summer, especially in the Danube basin. It severely impacted the operations of nuclear power plants from France to Bulgaria, but also coal-fired thermal power plants. Such facilities require a lot of water for cooling.
Battery energy storage systems cover short-term disturbances, as they can work at full power for just a few hours.
Restarted reactor at Cernavodă nuclear power plant temporarily offline again
As for Southeastern Europe, Romanian state-owned Nuclearelectrica suffered a setback in the process of reactivating its Cernavodă nuclear power plant. The 1.3 GW facility has been offline completely since mid-August because the water level in the Danube was too low.
The first of the two reactors had a technical malfunction yesterday, just three days after it was restarted. The company said it would replace the technical director on December 1, and that both reactors are scheduled to resume operations tomorrow.
Marković: Serbia is spending up to EUR 9 million per day on power imports
In other news, Pljevlja, Montenegro’s only coal plant, came back online yesterday after a regular ten-day overhaul. The 225 MW facility is run by government-controlled Elektroprivreda Crne Gore (EPCG).
Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia depend on coal and their mostly outdated thermal power plants. Domestic supply is weakening, so they are forced to import the solid fuel, but also electricity.
Energy expert Željko Marković told Serbian broadcaster RTS today that in October the country covered 26% of its power demand from imports. The trend continued this month. He estimated that the purchase of electricity costs Serbia EUR 8 million to EUR 9 million per day.
Hungary and Romania today have the highest average prices for November 11, at EUR 354 per MWh and EUR 352 per MWh, respectively. The surrounding countries are all just a few euros behind, except Greece, where the day-ahead price is EUR 279 per MWh.
