The first three quarters of 2026 under the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism confirm that Western Balkan electricity markets have shifted away from 2025 patterns, according to the Energy Community Secretariat’s latest report. On the bright side, the volumes traded in the day-ahead markets across the region’s four power exchanges have expanded. However, this growth stands in contrast to lower scheduled commercial exchanges between the WB6 and the European Union.
The third Energy Community Secretariat report on the impact of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on electricity markets finds that changes in prices and cross-border commercial exchanges were also shaped by generation, demand, available cross-border capacity, and broader regional market conditions, so that they cannot be attributed solely to CBAM.
Cross-border carbon tax entered into force on January 1, 2026.
The analysis brings data on the six Western Balkan contracting parties (WB6): Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo*, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia, and neighbouring EU member states Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Hungary, Italy, and Romania.
Scheduled exports from Montenegro to Italy increased by 80%
Gross scheduled exchange between the WB6 and the EU in Q3 was 8.6% higher than in Q2 but 14.3% lower than in Q3 2025. It was 17.8% lower in the period from January through September 2026 against the same period in 2025, the report reads.
WB6 remained a net scheduled importer, close to its Q3 2025 position. The authors pointed out that the increase from Q2 2026 was concentrated on a few corridors.
On every border with a non-zero default value, the indicative CBAM cost per MWh exceeded the average price advantage of the contracting party. However, scheduled exports from Montenegro to Italy increased sharply, by around 80%.
Commercial outcomes depend on more than the price spread and the CBAM cost
This indicates that commercial outcomes depend on more than the price spread and the CBAM cost, according to the analysis.
Exports from Serbia to Hungary declined by 21.6%, despite a wider price spread. But, the decline in Serbia to Hungary coincided with weaker scheduled exports from Hungary to Ukraine.
A wider price spread therefore did not automatically translate into higher scheduled exports, the secretariat stressed.
The four Western Balkans power exchanges increased trading by 26.7%
Day-ahead traded volumes on the four Western Balkans power exchanges – ALPEX, MEMO, MEPX, and SEEPEX – reached about 2.97 TWh in Q3. It is 10.2% more than in the previous quarter and 26.7% more than in Q3 2025, the report finds.
This occurred while gross scheduled exchanges between the WB6 and the EU remained below Q3 2025, and the region remained a net scheduled importer.
The available data do not show the cause of growth
The contrast shows that weaker cross-border commercial exchanges with the EU did not translate into lower organised market activity within the Western Balkans, the secretariat pointed out.
The available data do not show whether this growth reflects a shift from bilateral trading, increased market participation or other changes in trading behaviour, the report reads.
The correlation with the Hungarian day-ahead price was on average higher than in Q2
Over Q3 2026, the 30-day correlation with the Hungarian day-ahead price was on average higher than in Q2 in Albania, Kosovo*, North Macedonia and Serbia, and unchanged in Montenegro, according to the analysis.
Serbia remained the most closely correlated market, with an average of 0.87, and did not fall below 0.80 during the quarter.
The absolute price spread in Q3 2026 exceeded EUR 20/MWh in 53.9% of hours
Higher correlation means that prices moved up and down together more closely, the report reads. It does not mean that price levels converged, the authors added.
Across the eight WB6-EU price pairs, the absolute price spread in Q3 2026 exceeded EUR 20/MWh in 53.9% of hours, compared with 43.5% in Q2 and 21.7% in Q3 2025. In September alone, the share reached 63%.
The analysis shows that although the quarterly average price spread remained below EUR 20/MWh on every pair except Montenegro-Italy, hourly spreads exceeded this level in more than half of all hours.
