Serbia’s economy in uncharted territory amid imminent US sanctions against oil company NIS

For NIS in Serbia, doing business will become exceptionally difficult from tomorrow, when the United States imposes sanctions, starting with payment systems. The same goes for any enterprise cooperating with the oil refiner and distributor, majority owned by Russia’s Gazprom Neft and another firm controlled by Gazprom.

Moreover, Bulgaria said it would end the transit of Russian gas for short-term arrangements, through the Balkan Stream pipeline, on January 1.

Nine months after the US announced sanctions against NIS, which were postponed several times, they are coming into force tomorrow morning. Apparently, the American Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is imposing restrictive measures for Serbia’s national oil importer, refiner and operator of a chain of service stations. Croatian company Jadranski naftovod (JANAF), which depends to a great extent on supplying NIS, said the deliveries can last until October 15.

The US and the United Kingdom announced sanctions early this year against Russian state-owned Gazprom Neft, which at the time held 50% of ownership, while its parent Gazprom controlled another 6.2%. After a reshuffle, Gazprom Neft now has 44.9% of NIS, and Intelligence, a firm within Gazprom’s system, owns 11.3%. Serbia’s stake is 29.9%.

Plan B has numerous unknowns

The oil refinery in Pančevo is the only diesel and gasoline producer in Serbia and it dominates the market by far. According to media reports, NIS has considered switching to cash payments, with the exception of the domestic currency system DinaCard, and transferring all its accounts to the state-owned Postal Savings Bank.

It is unlikely that the company would be able to cover all the logistics and finances that way. At the same time, the entire Serbian economy is at risk, together with basic services for citizens. Organizing fuel imports will take time, which may lead to shortages and price hikes. Officials and the representatives of the oil sector claim that the current stockpiles can last several months.

Forced nationalization may switch energy crisis to gas supply from Russia

Back in January, President of Serbia Aleksandar Vučić immediately estimated that Russia would have to completely and urgently exit ownership. There was no success in the meantime in talks with the Kremlin and Gazprom.

“There is one possibility. If I said: I may seek nationalization of the property tomorrow. That is the last thing i would say, if I had to. I don’t want that,” Vučić stated late last week.

In case of a forced purchase of the Russian stake, the focus would turn to the supply of Russian gas through the Balkan Stream pipeline, an extension of TurkStream. Serbia still hasn’t signed a long-term contract with the Russian side, and the previous one expired in May.

To make matters worse, Bulgaria said it would end the transit of Russian gas, through Balkan Stream, for short-term arrangements. The move is part of the European Union’s measures to end the purchases of Russian fossil fuels. A total halt is scheduled for 2028. If the supply chain isn’t drastically changed, it would heavily impact Hungary, Slovakia and Serbia, together with Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia.