Earth would become 2.8 degrees warmer by 2100 without additional measures

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has released its annual Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target, assessing the state of global greenhouse gas emissions. The document outlines the gap between where global emissions are headed – based on announced national policies and pledges – and what is needed to meet international temperature targets.

Ten years after the adoption of the Paris Agreement, UNEP claims the accord has played a key role in lowering global temperature projections and spurring the development of renewable energy, policies, and targets. Due to countries’ slow progress in reducing emissions, the world is likely to exceed the Paris Agreement’s target of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, possibly within this decade.

Under the Paris Agreement, countries are required to submit their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) every five years — their plans for reducing emissions and adapting to climate change.

Implementation of current policies alone would lead to a warming of 2.8 degrees

The report states that by September 30, 2025, only 64 signatory countries, responsible for 63% of global emissions,  had submitted or announced NDC plans with mitigation targets for 2035. However, just 13 countries, accounting for less than 1% of global emissions, have updated their reduction targets.

In addition to the lack of progress in commitments, the report highlights a massive implementation gap. “In addition to the lack of progress in pledges, a huge implementation gap remains, with countries not on track to meet their 2030 NDCs, let alone new 2035 targets,” the report warns.

According to the report, full implementation of all NDCs would lead to a temperature rise of between 2.3 and 2.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, compared to last year’s projected range of 2.6 to 2.8 degrees. Implementation of current policies alone would result in a warming of 2.8 degrees, slightly lower than the 3.1 degrees that were projected in last year’s assessment.

Implementing all NDCs by 2035 would cut emissions by 12%-15% from the 2019 levels. However, if the United States withdraws from the Paris Agreement, the reduction would drop to between 9% and 11%.

It is far below the 35% reduction needed to limit warming to two degrees and the 55% required to stay within 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise

Global emissions of greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and fluorinated gases (F-gases), reached a record 57.7 billion tons of CO2 equivalent last year or 2.3% more than in 2023.

The largest share of emissions comes from the combustion of coal, oil, and gas, about 69% of the total. Combined emissions of CH4, N2O, and F-gases make up about 24%. In addition to fossil fuels, deforestation and land use change were key drivers of the sharp rise in emissions in 2024, according to the report.

Developed countries account for 77% of global emissions

The world’s most developed countries, the G20 group (Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the European Union), are responsible for 77% of global emissions, while the least developed countries contribute just 3%.

The largest emitters are China, the US, India, the EU, Russia, and Indonesia. The biggest absolute increase was recorded in India, followed by China and Indonesia, which is also among the world’s most populous nations. Meanwhile, emissions in the EU fell by 2.1%.

Paris Agreement goals are still achievable – but barely

“Urgent and stringent emission reductions” are essential to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, yet new NDCs and the current geopolitical context offer little reassurance that such reductions will be realized, the authors stressed.

UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen emphasized that the pace of change is insufficient, pointing out that emission reductions are “still possible – just.”

“Proven solutions already exist. From the rapid growth in cheap renewable energy to tackling methane emissions, we know what needs to be done. Now is the time for countries to go all in and invest in their future with ambitious climate action – action that delivers faster economic growth, better human health, more jobs, energy security, and resilience,” she said.

To reverse every 0.1 degrees Celsius of warming, about 220 billion tons of CO2 must be removed

To offset every 0.1 degrees Celsius of global temperature rise, approximately 220 billion tons of CO2, equivalent to five years of global emissions, would need to be removed from the atmosphere. While many impacts cannot be fully reversed, UNEP underscores that the 1.5-degree target remains a legal, moral, and political obligation for all governments.

“Scientists tell us that a temporary overshoot above 1.5 degrees is now inevitable – starting, at the latest, in the early 2030s. And the path to a livable future gets steeper by the day. But this is no reason to surrender. It’s a reason to step up and speed up. 1.5 degrees by the end of the century remains our North Star. And the science is clear: this goal is still within reach. But only if we meaningfully increase our ambition,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in his message on the report.