IEA: Renewables and nuclear set to supply 50% of world’s electricity by 2030 as demand rises steadily

Global electricity demand is expected to grow by 3.6% a year on average through 2030, driven mainly by industry, electric vehicles, and AI. Renewables, natural gas, and nuclear power are expected to meet all additional demand, while electricity output from coal is forecast to decline slightly and CO2 emissions to stagnate. By 2030, renewables and nuclear energy are set to account for half of the world’s power mix, according to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Electricity demand is set to grow at least 2.5 times faster than the overall energy demand, thanks to rising industrial use of electricity, the continued uptake of electric vehicles, higher air conditioning use, and the expansion of data centers and AI, reads the Electricity 2026 report, which provides in-depth analysis of trends and policy developments, and includes forecasts through 2030.

Growing electricity demand will require more investment in grids and increased flexibility

IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security Keisuke Sadamori said this demand will require a 50% increase in annual grid investment by 2030. “Expanding flexibility will also be crucial as power networks continue to evolve – so will a strong focus on security and resilience,” according to Sadamori.

In 2025, worldwide electricity demand grew by 3% year-on-year, following a 4.4% increase in 2024, according to the IEA report.

Renewables are overtaking coal thanks to a solar boom

Global power generation from renewables drew level with coal in 2025 and is now overtaking it, helped by record solar installations, the IEA said. By 2030, renewables and nuclear are together set to generate 50% of global electricity, up from 42% today, it added.

Renewable energy output is forecast to grow by about 1,000 TWh annually, with solar alone accounting for over 600 TWh.

However, although renewables are set to contribute the highest share of global electricity generation, coal would remain the single largest fuel source for power generation.

Renewables share in the EU set to reach 63% in 2030

In the European Union, power demand is increasingly met by renewables while coal use is falling rapidly, with renewables’ share in total electricity generation set to surpass all non-renewables combined as early as this year, according to the report.

The share of renewables in the EU will exceed 50% in 2026

By 2030, the share of renewables in the EU’s total electricity generation is forecast to reach 63%, up from 48% in 2025. Wind and solar alone are expected to account for 46% of the bloc’s power output, up from 30% in 2025.

By end-2030, more than 400 GW of net renewables capacity is expected to be added in the EU, 70% of which from solar, with utility-scale and distributed capacities accounting for roughly equal shares, according to the report.

Nuclear power generation set a new record in 2025

The IEA also noted that nuclear energy is regaining strategic importance in many advanced economies. In 2025, global nuclear power generation set a new record and is expected to continue rising steadily through 2030.

The report also finds that installations of utility-scale battery storage have risen sharply in recent years, particularly in California, Germany, Texas, South Australia, and the United Kingdom, providing an important source of short-term flexibility.

Congested grids are causing record-high connection delays for both renewables and batteries, along with increasing curtailment

However, at least 1,700 GW of renewable energy projects in advanced stages and more than 600 GW of battery storage projects were in connection queues as of 2025. The record-high queues are due to congested grids, the report notes.

Grid bottlenecks are also limiting electricity output through increasing curtailment. In Germany, annual curtailment rates for wind between 2022 and 2024 were above 5%, while solar also started to gradually increase, rising to 2% in 2024. In China, 4.1% of wind and 3.2% of solar generation were curtailed in 2024, up from 2.7% and 2%, respectively, in 2023, with preliminary data for 2025 suggesting that curtailment rates rose above 5% for both wind and solar.

Coal decline will keep global CO2 emissions flat

When it comes to fossil fuels, natural gas-fired production is also set to grow, driven by rising electricity demand in the United States and the shift from oil to gas in the Middle East.

Coal‑fired generation is expected to decline as renewables expand, returning to 2021 levels by the end of the decade. As a result, global CO2 emissions from electricity generation are expected to remain roughly flat between now and 2030.

Emissions are expected to decline in China, the US, and the EU

Between 2026 and 2030, China’s CO2 emissions from electricity generation are forecast to fall on average by 0.2% per year, the United States is expected to resume its declining trend at an average annual rate of 1.4%, and the emissions in the EU are projected to drop substantially, by an average 11% a year. On the other hand, India will see emissions rise by an annual average of 2.4%.