Aurora forecasts Western Balkans power capacity growth of 20 GW by 2040

The Western Balkans could see a 20 GW increase in installed capacity by 2040, with nearly 65% coming from renewables, Aurora Energy Research found. Short-term volatility and increased costs of commodities are expected to keep electricity prices near or over EUR 100 per MWh until 2030.

Aurora Energy Research issued its first forecast for the Western Balkans, eyeing investor movement. The firm expanded its market forecasting services, now offering full granularity modeling for Albania, Kosovo*, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina, available in its Western Balkans Power and Renewables Market Forecast.

The announcement follows the conclusion of a multiclient study comprising three workshops, the results of which reveal increased investor interest in the region.

Photovoltaics have the fastest growth rate and biggest capacity in the forecast

The combined installed capacity in the Western Balkans excluding Serbia is expected to grow by 20 GW by 2040 and by as much as 35 GW by 2060 from the current levels, leading to tens of billions in investments, Aurora said. Renewables account for the lion’s share with nearly 65% while battery energy storage systems (BESS), interconnectors and hydrogen-fired combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT) make up the remaining capacity additions.

Solar power shows the fastest rate of growth and absolute capacity value, according to the global power market analytics provider.

Electricity market prices returning below EUR 100 per MWh only after 2030

Looking into wholesale prices, the analysis expects the Western Balkans to follow similar trends as other SEE markets but with regional nuances, based on the local energy system evolution. Short-term volatility and increased commodities are foreseen to keep prices near or over the EUR 100 per MWh mark until 2030 while long-term baseload prices under Aurora’s central scenario are expected at between EUR 70 per MWh and EUR 80 per MWh, driven by high commodity prices, while an increasing renewables’ penetration acts in the opposite direction.

Early movers have an advantage as cannibalization looms

Renewable energy assets capture prices will benefit from lower cannibalization levels in the early years compared to other SEE countries, as there is less capacity in the system, giving early movers an advantage, the analysis reads. Over time, the momentum for storage seen in SEE likely spreads to the Western Balkans.

Coal phaseout seen by 2045

The speed of decarbonization in the region largely depends on the implementation of the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) or alignment with the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). The shift away from lignite could take time, Aurora’s experts say, with a full exit expected by 2045, but its share in the power system is expected to decrease significantly in the next decade due to pressure from CBAM and carbon taxes.

“The Western Balkans are Europe’s most rapidly changing power markets. Ageing thermal fleets, liberalisation of markets, policy support schemes, and strong fundamental economics are poised to bring the Western Balkans at the forefront of developers’ agendas,” said Panos Kefalas, Research Lead at Aurora Energy Research.

The Western Balkans Power and Renewables Market Forecast provides in-depth insights, detailed market analysis, and data-driven projections for investors, developers, and stakeholders.

Established in 2013, Aurora Energy Research provides power market forecasting and analytics for investment and financing decisions. Headquartered in Oxford, it operates out of 16 offices worldwide covering Europe, North and South America, Asia, and Australia. The firm’s services include market outlook for energy industry participants, advisory support, and software solutions.