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Lower electricity prices on the Slovenian power exchange will last at least until the end of September, according to Aleksander Mervar, CEO of ELES.
CEO of Slovenia’s distribution and transmission system operator (DSO and TSO), Aleksander Mervar, prepared a brief analysis of electricity price trends in light of the war in the Middle East, Naš stik reported.
The Hormuz strait closure has crippled the global supply of natural gas. As a result, the TTF natural gas benchmark soared nearly 60%. Natural gas prices dictate power prices in Europe.
Mervar predicts very low hourly prices in the period from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. and very high prices at night
The average base electricity price on the Slovenian power exchange BSP Southpool was EUR 112.13 per MWh in February and EUR 110.97 per MWh in March, lower than in January— EUR 140.91 per MWh.
The downward trend in prices at the exchange is logical from the perspective of the increasing amount of electricity produced from renewable sources, especially solar power plants, he explained.
Lower average prices as a result of abundant solar radiation will last until the end of September at least, according to Mervar.
For the coming months, he projects very low hourly prices between 7 a.m. and 8 p.m. and very high prices at night. Night prices are generally formed based on marginal prices from gas-fired power plants, so the difference between daily and nighttime prices will be greater than in 2025, he added.
The war has a significant impact on power futures
However, the oil and gas crisis in the Middle East, in his view, already has a significant impact on power futures.
On Friday, March 27, the price of base energy for delivery in the second quarter of this year on the Hungarian exchange HUPX was 36% higher than for March 27. For the third quarter, it was 37.5% higher, and for the last quarter of this year, it was 38% higher.
Perhaps it is encouraging that on March 27, the prices for all the three coming quarters were lower than they were on March 20, Mervar pointed out.
A stabilization of oil and gas prices is expected in 2028
He noted that the price for 2027 has risen by 26.4% from the level registered in mid-February for the same delivery. The price for 2028 jumped 11.3%, and for 2029 it advanced 6.3%.
Power exchange prices for 2028 on the last two Fridays of March 2026 indicate a stabilization of gas and oil prices in that year, Mervar underscored.
Of note, on the Slovenian exchange BSP Southpool, the day-ahead price for April 2 reached EUR 133.91 per MWh, compared to EUR 83.32 per MWh on February 27, just before the war started.
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