Carbon capture, storage is crucial for limiting global warming

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies play an important role in many climate change mitigation strategies. A new study shows that their deployment needs to be rapidly expanded to limit the temperature rise to two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

Scientists from Chalmers University in Sweden and the University of Bergen in Norway conducted a detailed analysis of the past and future growth of the carbon capture and storage (CCS) sector. The aim of the study titled Feasible Deployment of Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage and Conditions for Achieving Climate Goals was to assess whether the technology will develop fast enough to meet the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change.

CCS is a set of technological processes for capturing carbon dioxide released from industrial production or transportation and injecting and storing it in geological formations. The technology has a long way to go to achieve competitiveness, and the market for it is still in its conceptual phase.

Nevertheless, CCS technologies play a crucial role in many climate change mitigation strategies, including the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero. Although current usage is negligible, interest in this technology is growing, including for direct air capture of CO2 (DACCS) and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). BECCS is the process of capturing CO2 during energy production from biomass and permanently storing it.

Significant efforts are needed to bridge the gap between demonstration projects and the large-scale implementation of CCS.

“CCS is an important technology for achieving negative emissions, and it is also crucial for reducing carbon emissions from certain industries. However, our results show that significant efforts are needed to bridge the gap between current demonstration projects and the large-scale implementation we need to mitigate climate change,” says Jessica Jewell, one of the authors.

Are CCS plans feasible

The study emphasizes the need to increase the number of CCS projects to overcome inefficiencies and scale up deployment. CCS development relies on legal solutions, such as the European Union’s Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA) and the Inflation Reduction Act in the United States. If the goals are met, CCS capacity will increase eightfold by 2030. However, there are doubts about the feasibility of the plans, as a similar wave of CCS projects failed a decade ago.

The current plans are to increase CCS capacity eightfold by 2030

“Our analysis shows that it is unlikely we will capture and store more than 600 gigatons of CO2 by the end of the 21st century. This does not align with many climate change mitigation scenarios recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In some cases, it requires the capture and storage of more than 1,000 gigatons of CO2 by the end of the century,” says Tsimafei Kazlou, the study’s lead author. He adds that if the failure rate of CCS projects continues, the capacity will only be double in 2030 what it is today, which is insufficient to meet climate goals.

Rapid CCS technology development will not be enough to achieve the 1.5-degree Celsius target

In the next decade, CCS technology will need to develop at the same pace as the wind energy sector did in the first decade of the 21st century, to reduce carbon dioxide emissions enough to limit global temperature rise to two degrees Celsius by 2100. After that, starting from the 2040s, CCS will need to reach a growth rate similar to nuclear energy’s rise in the 1970s and 1980s, according to the study.

“The good news is that if CCS can grow at the rate that other low-carbon technologies have, the two-degree Celsius target could be achievable. The bad news is that the 1.5-degree Celsius target would likely still be out of reach,” Jewell asserts.

The authors argue that their analysis highlights the need for stronger policies supporting CCS development, combined with the rapid expansion of other decarbonization technologies, such as solar and wind power, to meet climate goals.