Anže Predovnik
The first electricity market coupling of a Western Balkan country with the European Union could happen either in early 2028 or at the onset of 2029, according to Chairman of the Management Board of ADEX Group and CEO of BSP Southpool Anže Predovnik. In an interview with Balkan Green Energy News, he explained the factors that are slowing down market coupling and highlighted the initial impacts of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on local electricity markets.
Regarding these two topics – market coupling and CBAM, ADEX serves as a bridge between the region and the European Union, Anže Predovnik stressed, and added that ADEX will do its utmost to ensure market coupling projects remain a top priority. He also provided insight into the upcoming launch of intraday markets in Montenegro and North Macedonia, as well as the establishment of a power exchange in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
In December 2025, ADEX Group celebrated three years of operation. Following expansion in late 2024, when HUPX joined, 2025 was the group’s first full year of joint operations. How would you assess the group’s performance across all three power exchanges – Slovenia’s BSP, Hungary’s HUPX and Serbia’s SEEPEX?
The first three years of ADEX Group’s operation have confirmed that the establishment of the group by bringing three power exchanges under one umbrella was the right decision. Trading volumes rose from 49 TWh in 2023 to 66 TWh last year.
Membership has followed a similar trajectory, growing from approximately 150 members in 2023 to more than 200 in 2025. Consequently, both core operational segments have seen significant growth since the establishment of ADEX Group.
This expansion is primarily driven by a surge in the intraday market, supported by a stable performance in day-ahead trading volumes.
What factors explain the expansion of intraday trading?
There are two main reasons.
The first factor is the growing prevalence of algorithmic trading in our markets; the second is the increased integration of renewable energy production into the intraday trading segment.
BSP, together with EPEX Spot, was recently successful in the tender for the provision of services for the operation the day-ahead market and for the establishment of the intraday market, for North Macedonia’s MEMO. You have been cooperating with MEMO for the past four years. How would you evaluate this cooperation so far?
Our cooperation with MEMO, North Macedonia’s national electricity market operator and a power exchange, started three years ago when we successfully launched the day-ahead trading segment – on May 10, 2023.
Their local market operates with a high degree of reliability, robustness, while liquidity exceeds the results of the local market in Slovenia when we were running in isolated modes. So, the MEMO team did an excellent job.
Our cooperation has been great and it continues to thrive with clearing services, advisory services for market coupling projects, and with the extension to intraday market introduction.
When can we expect the go-live of the intraday market in North Macedonia?
In line with the contracts signed after the tender in late January, it is expected that the go-live of the intraday market segment will happen in May 2026.
This will ensure that the country has both market segments – day-ahead and intraday – operational and technically ready for forthcoming market coupling projects.
Apart from North Macedonia, BSP, together with EPEX Spot, also provides services for BELEN, which operates the Montenegrin Power Exchange (MEPX). Can we expect the establishment of an intraday market in Montenegro as well?
It’s not a question of whether an intraday market will be established in Montenegro, but rather when.
From May onwards, we will have just two local intraday continuous market segments operating in the region, namely the one in North Macedonia and the one in Serbia, which has been operational since July 2023.
Now, from both a competitive standpoint and in terms of integration into the European single electricity market, it is important that Montenegro to take the next step towards the establishment of the intraday market.
We are well positioned to confidently expand into new markets
Given our strong regional track record, I am confident in our ability to help establish this market segment in Montenegro. We are also advising BELEN in its preparation for market coupling projects, which would make our involvement in the setup of the intraday market a natural next step.
To summarize, BSP/ADEX is the only power exchange operating the intraday continuous market both in EU countries and Energy Community contracting parties. Based on these experiences, we are well positioned to confidently expand into new markets.
Are there any deadlines for launching the intraday market in Montenegro?
It is up to our Montenegrin colleagues to define the precise go-live date for this market segment. However, I would advise that a decision on the way forward be adopted either later this year or early next year. This would allow for a few months of implementation leading up to the actual go-live window.
Looking more broadly at the region, are new markets – such as BiH – also of strategic interest for BSP and ADEX Group?
We are still waiting for the adoption of the law on the electricity market that will pave the way for the establishment of the power exchange.
ADEX is very interested in participating in this process, once, of course, the necessary conditions are in place and the decision to go forward is taken. We actively support our partners from BiH by providing useful information and by sharing our experience in this early stage of the process.
As part of this effort, we have decided to organize a workshop on June 2 for the key stakeholders in the electricity market.
Although earlier expectations suggested that the first market coupling in the Western Balkans region could take place in 2026, it is now clear that this timeline won’t be met.
Yes. There are regulatory, technical, and political reasons slowing down the process. I would identify two main reasons.
We have the slow transposition of EU legislation by the Energy Community contracting partners. The other reason is a lack of productivity from EU institutions, power exchanges, and transmission system operators (TSOs), particularly in preparing the legal framework for the entry of newcomers into the single EU electricity market.
This part relates to the development of the MCOIP, the Market Coupling Operational Implementation Plan. This document, which is supposed to drive the process, is in significant delay.
It would be reasonable to reconsider the wave-based approach as a more efficient alternative
So, it will be necessary to accelerate and improve the efficiency of preparations for market coupling go-live objectives to be achieved.
Recently, the initiative that we had on the table for two years now, that the newcomers would be coupled in groups or waves, has been set aside. Instead, the new approach is more focused on border by border, which further fragments and slows down the process, and also increases the costs.
It would be reasonable to reconsider the wave-based approach as a more efficient alternative than going individually, border by border, and to group those who are equally ready into waves.
CBAM represents an extra obstacle?
An additional challenge is the emerging issue of the interaction between market coupling projects and the CBAM regulation.
In the area of how these two coexist or don’t coexist, many important questions remain unanswered, and this only creates further uncertainty and pushes for potential delays. The process is complex.
Finally, is it realistic to suggest a specific date for the completion of market coupling?
Yes. However, there are also other issues. For example, EU power exchanges currently face new challenges. One of them is the proposed Capacity Allocation and Congestion Management 2.0 regulation (CACM 2.0).
Our businesses will be challenged, and its adoption will require significant engagement from all European power exchanges. So, it keeps us occupied. As a result, there is a risk that market coupling projects may not remain the top priority of EU power exchanges among all the homework they have to do. However, in my opinion, this should not be the case.
ADEX will do everything in its power to ensure that market coupling projects remain high priority
ADEX will do everything in its power to ensure that market coupling projects remain of high priority and that they enable integration of Energy Community parties’ markets into the single EU market; especially by putting the emphasis on the benefits that the extension of the market coupling area brings.
Regarding these two topics, ADEX is the voice from the region to the EU and back.
It’s difficult to set the timeline, but personally, I would like to see that the extension happens in early 2028 or at the beginning of 2029, since there is a one-year sequence among the waves anticipated.
This new timeline could be compared, for example, with Serbia’s plan to finish market coupling in the last quarter of 2027.
Looking at Serbia’s target from today’s angle, it’s no secret that implementation shall take 18 months as of the day of the approval, which is still pending. Q4 2027 is an aspiration, but Q1 2028 would be the first slot.
The Third Electricity Market Integration Forum, to be held in the European Parliament on May 13, will be dedicated to CBAM.
It is a proper arena for discussion among the European and regional stakeholders on important topics lying ahead on the way to a successful market coupling project implementation.
The forum’s title, Market Coupling and CBAM on Collision Course, clearly reflects its focus
The forum’s title this year, Market Coupling and CBAM on Collision Course, clearly reflects its focus. We want to examine how CBAM can go along with the market coupling plans. We particularly want to highlight that the initial impacts of CBAM are already becoming visible on local electricity markets.
They include a meaningful impact on liquidity on local power exchanges, bigger gap in prices compared to EU power exchanges, and increased caution regarding new green investments, coming from the first two consequences.
Can you give me some numbers regarding the CBAM effect on electricity markets, electricity prices?
You can’t make good conclusions in very short periods. As mentioned before, the situation around the CBAM mechanism introduction is complex, and numbers can be shared after the first analytics period. Electricity Market Integration Forum will be the right place for their presentation.
However, it is clear that the markets in the region are reshaping.
Yes.
In 2025, you were elected as a non-chair board member of Europex. Are you going to advocate for the specific interests and challenges of the SEE region?
I ran for this post because of two reasons.
First, because I’ve been around in my role at BSP for more than 15 years and I’ve served now for three years as the chairman of ADEX Group. Throughout this time, I’ve been actively involved in European energy topics. Based on this experience, I felt that I now have sufficient knowledge and expertise to contribute effectively to the board of Europex.
Finding compromises is now more important than ever
Secondly, my belief is that smaller power exchanges must have a voice in important decisions regarding the development of the single EU market. Despite tendencies toward centralization, it’s essential to clearly present the perspectives and arguments of smaller power exchanges.
I see a growing need for cooperation among all stakeholders, and I reject the logic of exclusion.
As I mentioned earlier, EU power exchanges are going to be tasked with implementing the new regulation. Finding compromises is now more important than ever, and Europex has a very important role in this process.
It gives us a platform to communicate our reactions and conclusions to the decision makers.
What are ADEX’s plans for the years ahead?
ADEX is a process, and the first regional story launched in our part of the world. It’s in a growth pattern, open to further steps.
We work hard on the synergies within the group, and these synergies would enable us further growth and presence in the region.
The priorities for the remaining part of my mandate are the implementation of internal synergies, extension of services in the region, significant progress in market coupling projects, and proper adaptation of ADEX Group to the new EU regulations.
All that will provide a foundation for the further development of the group.
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