Uncompetitiveness holding EU far behind green hydrogen targets

Several high-profile green hydrogen projects have been canceled in the past year, and major companies have reduced their decarbonization ambitions, the European Union Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) said in its new report. The technology is four times more expensive than production from fossil gas through steam reforming.

Investments are far behind EU targets and trailing even the contracted demand. However, an acceleration of existing projects would change the picture substantially. On that note, the European Hydrogen Bank is receiving submissions for its third auction.

Electrolyser capacity in the EU jumped 51% last year to 308 MW, while 1.8 GW was under construction in October 2025, expected to be commissioned within two years. The numbers are from the European Hydrogen Markets – 2025 Monitoring Report, issued by the EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER). It pointed out that the total falls well short of the trajectory toward the 2030 target of 40 GW, or the 48 GW to 54 GW range in member states’ plans.

Of note, while some other databases show similar figures, the Renewable Hydrogen Coalition has calculated that operational projects amount to 600 MW, though “across Europe,” and not just in the EU. Another 3 GW is under construction, its update reads.

The European Hydrogen Strategy aimed at 6 GW by 2024.

Sweden, Germany in strongest expansion

Sweden and Germany account for two thirds of the capacity under construction (742 MW and 414 MW, respectively), ACER said. In addition, EWE has just marked the start of construction of an electrolyzer facility of a whopping 320 MW, which would eclipse the fleet that is currently producing green or renewable hydrogen. The site is in Emden, in Germany.

Domestically produced renewable hydrogen contracted, 270,000 tons, would require 3.7 GW of electrolysers.

Several high-profile green hydrogen projects have been canceled in the past year, and major companies have reduced their decarbonization ambitions, the agency warned. Importantly, all existing projects, in any stage of development and with a 2030 target, are for 62 GW in total, indicating the potential for acceleration.

An electrolyzer under construction in Germany is set to surpass the combined capacity of the current EU fleet

As for Southeastern Europe, Romania targets 2.1 GW of electrolyzer capacity for 2030. Croatia is aiming for between 0.1 GW and 1.3 GW, while the remaining countries are at just 0.1 GW or 0.2 GW. Greece was the only country with any capacity in construction in October, 50 MW. Interconnections are planned between Greece, Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary.

Citing the European Hydrogen Observatory, ACER said Germany has added 46 MW last year. With Denmark (18 MW) and Hungary (11 MW), it was 72% of the annual growth.

Only six plants were bigger than 10 MW at the end of 2024, amounting to 90 MW altogether.

Gray hydrogen remains dominant

Steam methane reforming (SMR) remains the dominant production technology, accounting for 89% of the total capacity in the EU. It is colloquially called gray hydrogen.

The share of electrolytic hydrogen, made using electricity from all sources, not necessarily renewables, is marginal. So is the overall capacity for blue hydrogen. It is also from fossil gas, but the process involves carbon capture and storage, CCS.

Green hydrogen, one of so-called renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBO), costs some EUR 8 per kilogram, against just over EUR 2 per kilogram of conventional, gray hydrogen.

Expectations for liquefied natural gas (LNG) and carbon dioxide emission allowance price levels favor fossil fuel hydrogen in the short term, the report’s authors stressed. Meanwhile, slower deployment of electrolyzers limits economies of scale, delaying the anticipated reductions in related capital costs.

Projected prices of LNG and CO2 allowances are favoring fossil fuel hydrogen

With current production cost estimates at just below EUR 3 per kilo, low-carbon hydrogen with carbon capture is more competitive than renewable hydrogen. Additional costs for CO2 transport and storage are highly uncertain.

“The buildout of CO2 infrastructure may pose additional challenges. Moreover, the long-term gas offtake contracts required for such projects could lock in fossil fuel dependence and exposure to price volatility in the global natural gas market,” the authors said.

By definition, low-carbon hydrogen results in at least 70% lower emissions than the conventional one from fossil fuels. The segment includes electrolysis running on nuclear power.

The EU also counts hydrogen from biogas and biomass processing as renewable, if the technology complies with sustainability requirements.

Electricity supply costs, excluding grid tariffs, may account for up to 50% of the levelized cost of renewable hydrogen, with substantial regional variations across the EU. Regions with abundant renewable resources and strong renewable integration, such as Spain, already provide advantageous conditions for renewable hydrogen production, the document adds.

Electricity accounts for 60% to 70% of renewable hydrogen cost

The Renewable Hydrogen Coalition said electrolyzer manufacturing capacity has surged from 1 GW within a few years. It expects it to hit 15 GW in 2026.

Electricity accounts for 60% to 70% of the cost, with taxes and levies reaching 30% to 40% of the electricity cost itself, according to the group. It is also urging for incentives and an improvement in the legal framework.

“With the right enabling policies put in place, altogether, our coalition members could put online close to 18 GW of renewable hydrogen production projects between 2026 and 2032,” the declaration reads.

On that note, the European Hydrogen Bank has launched the call to its third auction for hydrogen production, worth EUR 1.3 billion. Spain is adding EUR 415 million, while Germany will match the EU with another EUR 1.3 billion within the auctions-as-a-service segment.

The IF25 Hydrogen Auction is designed to provide cost-efficient support for the production of RFNBO hydrogen or electrolytic low-carbon hydrogen. Producers of hydrogen with maritime or aviation offtakers can apply as well.

The call is part of a package under the Innovation Fund, using revenues from the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). A EUR 2.9 billion segment for net-zero technologies, IF25 NZT, includes hydrogen production.