Solar to surpass hydropower in Croatia by 2040

The share of renewable energy sources in electricity consumption in Croatia is currently in the upper part of the list among European Union countries, while solar power capacity should overtake hydropower by 2040, according to Dražen Jakšić, head of the Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar.

During an energy conference organized by Jutarnji List, Dražen Jakšić said only Austria, Sweden, Denmark, and Portugal have a higher share of renewables in electricity consumption in the European Union. The EU average is 45.3% and Croatia has 58.8%, according to an analysis published by Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar (EIHP).

For example, the levels are lower in Germany, the Netherlands and Spain, while Italy, France and Hungary are below the EU average.

According to Jakšić, Croatia also has a good result when it comes to the share of renewable energy in the direct consumption of electricity. The category covers transport, industry, households, agriculture, and construction.

Croatia’s share of green energy in transport is the lowest in the EU

Croatia’s share of 28.1% made it ninth in the chart, while the EU average is 24.5%.

The country is well positioned in the heating and cooling sector as well, but very poorly in the use of green energy in transport. The average share of renewable energy in the heating and cooling sector in the EU is 26.2%, compared to 36.2% in Croatia.

As for the transport item, it ranks the lowest, with a share of 0.9%. The EU average is 10.8%. Sweden (33%) and Finland (22%) topped the list.

Jakšić noted that Croatia targets renewable’s share of 78.7% in power consumption, 42.5% in direct consumption, and 24.6% in transport.

Investments estimated at EUR 33.8 billion, only EUR 10.8 billion available

EIHP analyzed electricity generation capacity. At the end of 2022, the total was 5,295 MW, of which hydropower plants accounted for 2,203 MW.

The institute estimated that by 2030 the installed capacity would reach 8,969 MW, rise to 13,094 MW in the next ten years, and then to 14,732 MW by 2050. Solar power is seen rising from 222 MW in 2022 to 2,382 MW in 2030. The projection shows it surpassing hydropower capacity by 2040, hitting 4,860 MW against 3,563 MW, Jakšić said in his presentation of the analysis Green Energy Transition: Are we (too) fast or (too) slow?

Croatia aspires to cover primary energy production domestically with 75.9% by 2050, versus the current 44.2%, he added. By 2030 the share should hit 57.4%, Jakšić stressed.

He warned EUR 33.8 billion is needed to achieve the set energy goals in all sectors and that only EUR 10.8 billion is available.