Drought frequency in Serbia doubles over 60 years

Research by the Institute of Meteorology in Belgrade shows that droughts in Serbia have become twice as frequent over the past 60 years, causing serious damage to agriculture. This year alone,  reduced yields of field crops, fruits, and vegetables have cost Serbia’s economy some USD 500 million, according to agro-economic analyst Žarko Galetin.

Weeks-long heat waves have hit Serbia in July and August. Climate change has lead to increasingly frequent extreme weather events such as droughts. Serbia has not been spared – heat waves occurring one after another and lack of rainfall have caused a drought that has been ongoing for weeks, inflicting serious damage to agriculture.

In an op-ed for Klima101, researcher Milica Tošić from the Institute of Meteorology writes that droughts are becoming a normal occurrence.

The future will bring even more severe droughts

This is confirmed by research conducted by scientists from this think-tank, which shows that droughts are twice as frequent today as they were 60 years ago. Until the 1990s, only two extreme droughts were recorded – in 1963 and 1983 – and only in some parts of Vojvodina. However, since then, extreme droughts have occurred in 2000, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2012, 2017, 2022, and now in 2024.

“The probability that we’ll have more droughts like this, and even worse ones, is quite high, although it is difficult to predict when exactly these droughts will occur,” writes Tošić.

She also stresses that Serbia must adapt to new conditions, both in agriculture and in other areas, and improve seasonal forecasts.

Heatwaves prompt early harvests

Extremely high temperatures and a rainless summer brought harvesters out a month earlier than usual. The drought reduced the yield of sunflower, corn, and soybean, but fruit was not spared either. On average, the yields will be 25-30% lower.

Agro-economic analyst Žarko Galetin has told RTS that this year’s damage from drought, in terms of market prices for crops, fruits, and vegetables, will amount to around half a billion euros.

Since the beginning of the 21st century, Serbia’s agriculture has suffered damage of about USD 7 billion

According to him, since the beginning of the 21st century, Serbia has suffered a cumulative economic damage in agriculture of about USD 7 billion.

Galetin believes that the lower grain yield does not mean the purchase prices will go up, as grains are commodities traded on exchanges, with prices depending on global supply.

While food prices in Serbian grocery stores do not depend much on the movement of grain prices on exchanges, the situation is different for vegetables. “We can see that green markets are the first to react to any shortage or excess supply of locally produced fruits and vegetables, but also those from imports,” concludes Galetin.