First merchant battery projects in Greece to be highly profitable, study shows

Standalone battery units in Greece are expected to be profitable both in the short and the long term, according to a new study by the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki (AUTh).

The results were based on a simulation carried out for a variety of battery types, with storage durations between two and five hours. A maximum of two charge-discharge cycles per day was taken into account.

The study concerns merchant projects that rely exclusively on the market for their profitability. This means that they can generate revenue in three ways: through the daily arbitrage between the lowest and highest hourly wholesale power prices, from balancing the system and providing reserves.

Storage duration determines revenues

In the case of a battery with a capability of 10 MW and five hours of storage, the results showed a revenue of EUR 2.6 million in 2026. The amount falls after 2030 to EUR 1.6 million, which is still sufficient for investments. It remains near the same level all the way to 2037.

Revenues for a 10 MW facility with a two-hour duration are much lower. They begin at EUR 1.5 million in 2026 and decline to EUR 800,000 after 2030.

Projects will rely mostly on arbitrage after 2028

In comparison, a 10 MW project costs between EUR 2.5 and EUR 5 million to develop, depending on storage duration, according to current battery prices. Therefore, it is evident that investors would return the investment in less than 10 years. Typical systems have an operational life expectancy of 20-25 years.

“Batteries will benefit initially from high revenues through balancing and reserves provision. After the first few years, they will rely mostly on arbitrage,” said Pantelis Biskas, professor at AUTh.

Greece published a plan earlier this year to develop 4.7 GW in commercial battery storage systems. Businesses are currently moving to secure licenses and the first installations are expected to come online by 2028.

It means the projects will probably miss the initial high returns that AUTh expects. However, they will still be profitable, especially the ones with long storage duration.