Aurora: Romania’s third CfD auction is key for 2030 targets as solar outpaced wind

Aurora Energy Research expects strike prices at the additional renewable energy auction in Romania, for the remaining wind power quota, to land near the ceiling, which was set at EUR 80 per MWh. In the previous round, there was strong competition between the bidders in the photovoltaic segment, while developers of wind energy projects may have seen more value in PPAs and merchant options.

Increased costs and stricter eligibility rules constrained wind participation in Romania’s second contracts-for-difference (CfD) round in August, which fell short of the 2 GW wind target. Developers may have seen more value outside the CfD framework, according to Aurora experts, who stressed that power purchase agreements (PPAs) and merchant options offer higher returns than the capped CfD strike prices.

Solar projects showed stronger economics, with strike prices between EUR 35 per MWh and EUR 45 per MWh, compared to wind at EUR 65 per MWh to EUR 79.5 per MWh.

“Using the same commercial operation date for both PV and wind projects has disincentivised wind participation in CfD rounds, since wind developments are far more complex. Their permitting, grid connection, and EPC timelines are significantly longer than solar, making the uniform deadline misaligned with project realities,” said Project Leader at Aurora Energy Research Filippos Falieros.

Dedicated auctions can influence market dynamics

As wind is essential for achieving 2030 renewable targets, the Romanian Ministry of Energy invited developers to submit expressions of interest for mature wind projects only, with contracts expected to be signed by the end of 2025. The third auction will focus on wind energy solely, with a maximum strike price set at EUR 80 per MWh, and Aurora expects strike prices near the ceiling.

In the second auction, accepted wind power bids were between EUR 65 per MWh and EUR 79.5 per MWh

The move underscores the growing divergence in Romania between solar’s strong economics and wind’s slower progress, while also showing how policy adjustments – such as dedicated auctions – can influence market dynamics.

CfD state aid scheme was approved through Modernisation Fund

The overall CfD scheme is supported by EUR 3 billion in total state aid that the European Union approved through the Modernisation Fund, aiming to keep costs low for consumers.

Established in 2013, Aurora Energy Research provides power market forecasting and analytics for critical investment and financing decisions. Headquartered in Oxford, it operates out of 17 offices worldwide covering Europe, North and South America, Asia and Australia.

The firm’s comprehensive services include market outlook packages for energy industry participants, advisory support, and software solutions. Aurora fosters diversity with a team of one thousand experts with backgrounds in energy, finance, and consulting, offering expertise across power, renewables, storage, hydrogen, carbon, and fossil commodities.