Western Balkans have as many prospective solar, wind projects as Germany

Prospective utility-scale solar and wind capacity in the Western Balkans amounts to 23 GW, or 70% more than a year ago. According to the study A Race to the Top 2024: Western Balkans, it is comparable to Germany.

Global Energy Monitor, REScoop.EU, CEE Bankwatch Network, and Electra Energy authored the study. They stressed the buildout of solar and wind projects has the potential to displace operating and prospective gas-fired power in the Western Balkans.

They defined prospective projects as any projects that are either announced, pre-construction, or under construction. According to the document, Western Balkan states have intensified plans for clean energy development, with more than 23 GW of prospective utility-scale solar and wind.

However, the study underlines that only 6% (1.3 GW) of prospective capacity is under construction and very likely to become operational.

The construction rate of solar and wind power in four countries in the region is higher than the global rate outside China

Serbia has the largest share of prospective (47%) utility-scale solar and wind capacity in the region. But its share of projects in construction against total prospective capacity is only second to last, just 3% (0.4 GW).

The study notes that this share is lower than the average construction rate in Europe (5%) and the average global rate outside of China (7%).

The construction rate in the rest of the region, outside Serbia and Montenegro, is 11%.

Utility-scale solar and wind farms comprise just 7% of the current electricity mix

Utility-scale solar and wind farms in the Western Balkans comprise just 7% or 1.5 GW of the current electricity mix (20.4 GW).

The region has 662 MW of utility-scale solar and 865 MW of wind capacity in operation. The data showed that Serbia has the region’s largest share of operating (29%) utility-scale solar and wind capacity.

The authors said Albania had the highest operating utility-scale solar capacity last year, 255 MW, and an additional 58 MW came online in 2024.

Wind power capacity additions have slowed in recent years

The lion’s share of operating utility-scale solar capacity (38%) was added in 2023, and much of the operating wind capacity (48%) came online in 2019. Of the 240 MW in large utility-scale solar expansion in the region in 2023, 140 MW is the Karavasta solar farm in Albania, the study reads.

By contrast, wind power capacity additions have slowed in recent years. The Western Balkans saw their greatest wind capacity additions in 2019, 414 MW.

Out of 23 GW of prospective projects, 7 GW (30%) is planned to commence operations by 2028

The analysis demonstrated that out of 23 GW of prospective projects, 7 GW (30%) is planned to commence operations by 2028, while 16.2 GW or 70% has no start year scheduled.

In pre-construction and construction are 3.2 GW (29%) of prospective utility-scale solar and 6.4 GW (52%) of prospective wind capacity. The remaining 13.6 GW has been announced, but it is yet to begin financing and permitting, according to the analysis.

The US, and the EU interests continue to push for 2.6 GW of gas power plants

“Serbia and BiH are linchpins in the region’s solar and wind buildout. They account for nearly 70% of prospective solar and wind capacity in the region,” the study finds.

The authors stress that the United States and the European Union continue pushing for 2.6 GW of new gas-powered capacity.

They underlined that the EU and US need to embrace solar and wind instead of gas as an energy security measure to help the Western Balkans reach their full clean energy potential.