{"id":90407,"date":"2026-03-17T23:55:54","date_gmt":"2026-03-17T22:55:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/balkangreenenergynews.com\/rs\/?p=90407"},"modified":"2026-03-18T02:00:41","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T01:00:41","slug":"nafta-do-maja-dostize-190-dolara-za-barel-ako-se-ormuz-ne-otvori-analiza","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/balkangreenenergynews.com\/rs\/nafta-do-maja-dostize-190-dolara-za-barel-ako-se-ormuz-ne-otvori-analiza\/","title":{"rendered":"Nafta do maja dosti\u017ee 190 dolara za barel ako se Ormuz ne otvori \u2013 analiza"},"content":{"rendered":"

I do 3,5 biliona dolara globalnog bruto dru\u0161tvenog proizvoda je u opasnosti, ili 3,15 odsto, u slu\u010daju nastavka blokade Ormuskog moreuza, upozorio je SolAbility u svojoj analizi. Taj istra\u017eiva\u010dki centar pocenjuje da \u0107e maksimum cene nafte Brent iznositi 128 dolara po barelu ili manje jedino ukoliko do\u0111e do primirja u roku od dve nedelje. U suprotnom, nivo bi najkasnije 62. dana rata mogao da se katapultira do 190 dolara.<\/h2>\n

Ormuski tesnac je gotovo potpuno zatvoren od 28. februara, kada su Izrael i Sjedinjene Ameri\u010dke Dr\u017eave napali Iran. Do tog trenutka je to bio koridor za desetine tankera svakog dana, koji su prevozili 20 odsto svetske nafte.<\/a> Prema projekciji nezavisnog instituta SolAbility,<\/a> ovaj rat je globalnu privredu ko\u0161tao 14 milijardi dolara samo danas, a tro\u0161ak izme\u0111u 65. i 75. dana dosti\u017ee vrhunac od 38 milijardi dolara dnevno.<\/p>\n

U scenariju eskalacije sukoba, gde prolaz Ormuz ostaje zatvoren, zbirni gubitak globalnog BDP-a dosti\u017ee vrtoglavih 3,5 biliona dolara ili 3,15 odsto. Pored nafte, me\u0111u faktorima su nesta\u0161ica te\u010dnog prirodnog gasa (LNG) i \u0111ubriva, rastu\u0107a inflacija i skok premija osiguranja rizika transporta.<\/p>\n

Referentna cena nafte tipa Brent dosti\u017ee vrhunac od 190 dolara po barelu najkasnije 62. dana, a iznad 160 dolara po barelu ostaje ukupno \u0161est nedelja. Samo kredibilan prekid vatre u naredne dve nedelje mo\u017ee zadr\u017eati cenu na najvi\u0161e 128 dolara po barelu, nivoa koji dosti\u017ee u roku od osam dana.<\/p>\n

U ovom modelu, 45. dan je kriti\u010dan zbog nepovratne \u0161tete u poljoprivredi ukoliko se Ormuz ponovo ne otvori.<\/p>\n

Devedesetog dana inflacija u najizlo\u017eenijim privredama dosti\u017ee vrhunac od ekstremnih osam ili vi\u0161e procentnih poena iznad nivoa o\u010dekivanog da nije bilo rata. Va\u017eno je ista\u0107i da bi izvoznici nafte poput Norve\u0161ke i Kanade, ostvarili sna\u017ean rast BDP-a.<\/p>\n

\u0160to se ti\u010de regiona kojeg prati Balkan Green Energy News, analiza uklju\u010duje Rumuniju, koja ima nisku zavisnost od nafte iz Persijskog zaliva, kao i Gr\u010dku i Tursku, s umerenom zavisno\u0161\u0107u. Sa zatvorenim Ormuzom, gubici nakon \u0161est meseci redom dosti\u017eu 2,5 milijardi dolara (0,7 odsto BDP-a), 4,1 milijardu dolara (1,7 procenata) i 22,9 milijardi dolara (1,9 odsto).<\/p>\n

Ina\u010de, referentna cena omanske nafte se od kraja februara ve\u0107 udvostru\u010dila na preko 150 dolara za barel. Brent se \u010detvrti trgova\u010dki dan zaredom zatvorio iznad stotke.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I do 3,5 biliona dolara globalnog bi bilo zbrisano ukoliko Ormuz ostane zatvoren, \u0161to podrazumeva i uzlet cena nafte, upozorava SolAbility<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":27,"featured_media":90408,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6295],"tags":[6177,779,5992,5115],"class_list":["post-90407","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energetska-kriza","tag-energetska-kriza","tag-fosilna-goriva","tag-nafta","tag-poljoprivreda","country-svet"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNafta do maja dosti\u017ee 190 dolara za barel ako se Ormuz ne otvori \u2013 analiza<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"I do 3,5 biliona dolara globalnog bi bilo zbrisano ukoliko Ormuz 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