Ormuski tesnac je gotovo potpuno zatvoren od 28. februara, kada su Izrael i Sjedinjene Ameri\u010dke Dr\u017eave napali Iran. Do tog trenutka je to bio koridor za desetine tankera svakog dana, koji su prevozili 20 odsto svetske nafte.<\/a> Prema projekciji nezavisnog instituta SolAbility,<\/a> ovaj rat je globalnu privredu ko\u0161tao 14 milijardi dolara samo danas, a tro\u0161ak izme\u0111u 65. i 75. dana dosti\u017ee vrhunac od 38 milijardi dolara dnevno.<\/p>\n U scenariju eskalacije sukoba, gde prolaz Ormuz ostaje zatvoren, zbirni gubitak globalnog BDP-a dosti\u017ee vrtoglavih 3,5 biliona dolara ili 3,15 odsto. Pored nafte, me\u0111u faktorima su nesta\u0161ica te\u010dnog prirodnog gasa (LNG) i \u0111ubriva, rastu\u0107a inflacija i skok premija osiguranja rizika transporta.<\/p>\n Referentna cena nafte tipa Brent dosti\u017ee vrhunac od 190 dolara po barelu najkasnije 62. dana, a iznad 160 dolara po barelu ostaje ukupno \u0161est nedelja. Samo kredibilan prekid vatre u naredne dve nedelje mo\u017ee zadr\u017eati cenu na najvi\u0161e 128 dolara po barelu, nivoa koji dosti\u017ee u roku od osam dana.<\/p>\n U ovom modelu, 45. dan je kriti\u010dan zbog nepovratne \u0161tete u poljoprivredi ukoliko se Ormuz ponovo ne otvori.<\/p>\n Devedesetog dana inflacija u najizlo\u017eenijim privredama dosti\u017ee vrhunac od ekstremnih osam ili vi\u0161e procentnih poena iznad nivoa o\u010dekivanog da nije bilo rata. Va\u017eno je ista\u0107i da bi izvoznici nafte poput Norve\u0161ke i Kanade, ostvarili sna\u017ean rast BDP-a.<\/p>\n \u0160to se ti\u010de regiona kojeg prati Balkan Green Energy News, analiza uklju\u010duje Rumuniju, koja ima nisku zavisnost od nafte iz Persijskog zaliva, kao i Gr\u010dku i Tursku, s umerenom zavisno\u0161\u0107u. Sa zatvorenim Ormuzom, gubici nakon \u0161est meseci redom dosti\u017eu 2,5 milijardi dolara (0,7 odsto BDP-a), 4,1 milijardu dolara (1,7 procenata) i 22,9 milijardi dolara (1,9 odsto).<\/p>\n Ina\u010de, referentna cena omanske nafte se od kraja februara ve\u0107 udvostru\u010dila na preko 150 dolara za barel. Brent se \u010detvrti trgova\u010dki dan zaredom zatvorio iznad stotke.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" I do 3,5 biliona dolara globalnog bi bilo zbrisano ukoliko Ormuz ostane zatvoren, \u0161to podrazumeva i uzlet cena nafte, upozorava SolAbility<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":27,"featured_media":90408,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_titles_title":"Nafta do maja dosti\u017ee 190 dolara za barel ako se Ormuz ne otvori \u2013 analiza","_seopress_titles_desc":"I do 3,5 biliona dolara globalnog bi bilo zbrisano ukoliko Ormuz ostane zatvoren, \u0161to podrazumeva i uzlet cena nafte, upozorava SolAbility.","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"6295","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":0,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"Ormuz","_seopress_news_disabled":"","_seopress_video_disabled":"","_seopress_video":[],"_seopress_pro_schemas_manual":[],"_seopress_pro_rich_snippets_disable_all":"","_seopress_pro_rich_snippets_disable":[],"_seopress_pro_schemas":[],"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6295],"tags":[6177,779,5992,5115],"class_list":["post-90407","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energetska-kriza","tag-energetska-kriza","tag-fosilna-goriva","tag-nafta","tag-poljoprivreda","country-svet"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/balkangreenenergynews.com\/rs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90407","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/balkangreenenergynews.com\/rs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/balkangreenenergynews.com\/rs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/balkangreenenergynews.com\/rs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/27"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/balkangreenenergynews.com\/rs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=90407"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/balkangreenenergynews.com\/rs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90407\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":90411,"href":"https:\/\/balkangreenenergynews.com\/rs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90407\/revisions\/90411"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/balkangreenenergynews.com\/rs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/90408"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/balkangreenenergynews.com\/rs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=90407"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/balkangreenenergynews.com\/rs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=90407"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/balkangreenenergynews.com\/rs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=90407"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}