{"id":82403,"date":"2025-07-15T14:16:38","date_gmt":"2025-07-15T12:16:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/balkangreenenergynews.com\/rs\/?p=82403"},"modified":"2025-07-15T14:16:38","modified_gmt":"2025-07-15T12:16:38","slug":"toplotni-talasi-i-ekonomija-kakve-su-posledice","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/balkangreenenergynews.com\/rs\/toplotni-talasi-i-ekonomija-kakve-su-posledice\/","title":{"rendered":"Toplotni talasi i ekonomija – kakve su posledice"},"content":{"rendered":"

Osim u\u017easnog danka u ljudskim \u017eivotima, toplotni talasi tako\u0111e zna\u010dajno uti\u010du na ekonomiju, poru\u010dio je jedan od ekonomista Evropske centralne banke (ECB).<\/h2>\n

Procenjuje se da je letnji toplotni talas 2003. godine ubio oko 70.000 ljudi u Evropi. Ovaj najnoviji toplotni talas u junu je, prema re\u010dima Majlsa Parkera, ubio oko 30 ljudi samo u Frankfurtu.<\/p>\n

Nedavno istra\u017eivanje pokazalo je da vi\u0161e ljudi izgubi \u017eivot<\/a> svake godine od posledica ekstremnih vru\u0107ina nego od poplava, zemljotresa i uragana.<\/p>\n

Utvr\u0111eno je, kako je naveo Majls Paker, da toplotni talasi zna\u010dajno smanjuju ekonomsku aktivnost u pogo\u0111enim regionima i povec\u0301avaju cene hrane. On navodi da godi\u0161nja doba kada se toplotni talasi javljaju u velikoj meri odre\u0111uje njihov ekonomski uticaj.<\/p>\n

Dobri i lo\u0161i toplotni talasi<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Tako toplotni talasi koji se javljaju u prolec\u0301e, jesen i zimu mogu podsticati ekonomsku aktivnost. Neobi\u010dno visoke temperature u tim sezonama podsti\u010du gra\u0111evinskau delatnost, rast useva i odlazak u restorane na otvorenom.<\/p>\n

Nasuprot tome, toplotni talasi tokom vec\u0301 toplijih leta smanjuju ekonomsku aktivnost, jer fizi\u010dki napor na otvorenom postaje sve manje upotrebljiv.<\/p>\n

Nedavno istra\u017eivanje ECB-a otkriva zna\u010dajan negativan efekat letnjih toplotnih talasa na regionalnu aktivnost od oko jedan odsto. Jo\u0161 iznena\u0111ujuc\u0301e je to \u0161to je smanjenje proizvodnje produ\u017eeno, pa \u010dak i intenzivirano, dosti\u017euc\u0301i minimum 1,5 odsto nakon dve godine.<\/p>\n

Posle poreme\u0107aja ne dolazi period oporavka<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Rezultati istra\u017eivanja su pokazali da tradicionalno shvatanje da ekstremni vremenski doga\u0111aji izazivaju privremene poremec\u0301aje prac\u0301ene periodom oporavka nije ta\u010dno, naglasio je Parker.<\/p>\n

Regionalna proizvodnja je, kako se dodaje, tri odsto ni\u017ea \u010detiri godine nakon su\u0161e, a 2,8 odsto \u010detiri godine nakon poplave.<\/p>\n

Ina\u010de, toplotni talas u okviru ovog istra\u017eivanja, definisana je kao odstupanje letnjih temperatura vec\u0301e od dva stepena Celzijusa iznad istorijskog proseka regiona (1991\u20132020).<\/p>\n

Pa\u017eljivijim analiziranjem kako regionalne ekonomije reaguju na toplotni talas, mogu se na\u0107i dokazi o ni\u017eoj poljoprivrednoj proizvodnji, posebno u bliskoj buduc\u0301nosti. Aktivnost sektora usluga je. tako\u0111e, ni\u017ea na srednji rok, navodi Majls u blogu za sajt ECB-a<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Zabele\u017eena su velika ulaganja u kapital za adaptaciju na klimatske promene, na primer, klimatizaciju, koji je manje produktivan od drugih vrsta kapitala. A, tu je i oportunitetni tro\u0161ak: dok adaptacija poma\u017ee u za\u0161titi od najgorih efekata klimatskih ekstrema, ona dolazi po cenu smanjenja ulaganja u nove tehnologije koje bi mogle pobolj\u0161ati produktivnost \u010dak i u normalnim vremenima.<\/p>\n

Letnji toplotni talasi povec\u0301avaju cene hrane<\/h3>\n

Centralne banke, prema re\u010dima Majlsa, brinu o tome kako toplotni talasi uti\u010du na inflatorne pritiske u ekonomiji. Kao i kod proizvodnje, efekat toplotnih talasa na inflaciju razlikuje se po sezoni.<\/p>\n

Toplije zime, na primer, zna\u010de ni\u017ee cene energije. Iako su istra\u017eivanja o uticaju na cene hrane relativno nova, Majls isti\u010de da postoji sna\u017ean konsenzus da letnji toplotni talasi povec\u0301avaju cene hrane.<\/p>\n

Istra\u017eivanje ECB-a procenjuje da su ekstremne letnje vruc\u0301ine 2022. godine povec\u0301ale cene hrane u Evropi za 0,7 procentnih poena. Poslednjih godina, ekstremni vremenski uslovi doprineli su zna\u010dajnom povec\u0301anju cena vitalnih namirnica kao \u0161to su maslinovo ulje, kakao i kafa.<\/p>\n

Ipak, uticaj na inflaciju u celini je manje siguran, podvla\u010di Majls. To je zato \u0161to, dodaje, klimatski doga\u0111aji nisu tipi\u010dni negativni \u0161okovi ponude koji smanjuju proizvodnju i povec\u0301avaju cene. Tako\u0111e pokazuju elemente negativnih \u0161okova potra\u017enje, koji smanjuju i proizvodnju i cene.<\/p>\n

U\u017eivajte u letu – jer \u0107e ono biti jedno od hladnijih do kraja na\u0161ih \u017eivota<\/h3>\n

Ekonomista ECB-a navodi da kao \u0161to je va\u017eno kada se javljaju, va\u017eno je i gde se javljaju toplotni talasi. Ozbiljnost smanjenja proizvodnje je mnogo vec\u0301a u regionima koji su istorijski bili topliji. U tim regionima, vec\u0301a je verovatnoc\u0301a da c\u0301e toplota vi\u0161a od normalne prec\u0301i kriti\u010dne pragove za ljudsku fizi\u010dka aktivnost.<\/p>\n

U ovim situacijama, jednostavno je previ\u0161e vruc\u0301e za svakodnevni \u017eivot – a kamoli za rad, nagla\u0161ava Majls.<\/p>\n

Cilj Pariskog sporazuma od 1,5 stepni Celzijusa je u skladu sa tri stepena toplijim letnjim danima. Trenutne politike vode ka rastu temperature od tri stepena, \u0161to, kako nagla\u0161ava, zna\u010di rast temperature u letnjim mesecima od \u0161est stepeni do kraja ovog veka.<\/p>\n

Ukratko, toplotni talasi c\u0301e verovatno imati mnogo izra\u017eeniji uticaj na ekonomiju i cene u buduc\u0301nosti nego \u0161to su to \u010dinili do sada, zaklju\u010duje Majls, uz poruku da u\u017eivamo u ovom letu jer \u0107e ono biti jedno od hladnijih leta do kraja na\u0161ih \u017eivota.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Osim u\u017easnog danka u ljudskim \u017eivotima, toplotni talasi zna\u010dajno uti\u010du na ekonomiju, poru\u010dio je ekonomista Evropske centralne banke<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":82405,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5909,4],"tags":[6692,6552,6442,6539,766,5115,6502,6429,6684,6904],"class_list":["post-82403","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-klimatske-promene","category-zivotna-sredina","tag-adaptacija","tag-centralna-banka","tag-ekstremne-vrucine","tag-hrana","tag-klimatske-promene","tag-poljoprivreda","tag-poplave","tag-toplotni-talas","tag-toplotni-talasi","tag-visoke-temperature","country-regioneu"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nToplotni talasi i ekonomija - 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