{"id":79511,"date":"2025-04-15T19:15:44","date_gmt":"2025-04-15T17:15:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/balkangreenenergynews.com\/rs\/?p=79511"},"modified":"2025-04-24T13:07:23","modified_gmt":"2025-04-24T11:07:23","slug":"aurora-ocekuje-20-gigavata-veci-elektroenergetski-kapacitet-2040-na-zapadnom-balkanu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/balkangreenenergynews.com\/rs\/aurora-ocekuje-20-gigavata-veci-elektroenergetski-kapacitet-2040-na-zapadnom-balkanu\/","title":{"rendered":"Aurora o\u010dekuje 20 gigavata ve\u0107i elektroenergetski kapacitet 2040. na Zapadnom Balkanu"},"content":{"rendered":"

Zapadnom Balkanu bi u periodu zaklju\u010dno sa 2040. moglo da predstoji uve\u0107anje instalisanog kapaciteta za 20 gigavata, od \u010dega 65 odsto iz obnovljivih izvora, objavila je Aurora Energy Research. O\u010dekuje se da \u0107e se cene struje sve do 2030, usled naglih kratkoro\u010dnih promena i uve\u0107anih tro\u0161kova za sirovine, dr\u017eati oko ili iznad stotinu evra po megavat-satu.<\/h2>\n

Aurora Energy Research<\/a> je sastavila svoju prvu prognozu za Zapadni Balkan, prate\u0107i investitorske aktivnosti. Ta firma je pro\u0161irila svoje usluge prognoziranja i sada nudi potpuno granularno modeliranje za Albaniju, Kosovo*, Severnu Makedoniju, Crnu Goru i Bosnu i Hercegovinu: Western Balkans Power and Renewables Market Forecast.<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Vest je objavila po zaklju\u010divanju studije sa vi\u0161e klijenata kroz tri radionice, otkrivaju\u0107i pove\u0107anje zainteresovanosti investitora u ovaj region.<\/p>\n

Fotonaponski sistemi u prognozi imaju najvi\u0161u stopu rasta i najve\u0107i kapacitet<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

O\u010dekuje se da \u0107e rast ukupnog instalisanog kapaciteta na Zapadnom Balkanu, osim Srbije, od ovog trenutka do 2040. dosti\u0107i 20 gigavata, a 35 gigavata u periodu zaklju\u010dno sa 2060, \u0161to podrazumeva investicije merene u desetinama milijardi, saop\u0161tila je Aurora. Obnovljivi izvori \u010dine lavovski deo, gotovo 65 procenata, a ostatak kapaciteta su baterijski sistemi za skladi\u0161tenje energije (BESS), interkonektori i gasne turbine sa kombinovanim ciklusom (CCGT) na vodoni\u010dni pogon.<\/p>\n

Solarna postrojenja pokazuju najvi\u0161u stopu rasta i apsolutnog kapaciteta, napominju u ovom globalnom provajderu analize tr\u017ei\u0161ta elektri\u010dne energije.<\/p>\n

Cene na tr\u017ei\u0161tu elektri\u010dne energije se pre 2030. ne vra\u0107aju ispod stotinu evra za megavat-sat<\/h3>\n

Kada je re\u010d o veleprodajnim cenama, rezultati analize pokazuju da Zapadni Balkan prati sli\u010dne trendove kao druga tr\u017ei\u0161ta u JIE, ali uz regionalne nijanse, zasnovane na evoluciji energetskog sistema na lokalnom nivou.<\/p>\n

O\u010dekuje se da \u0107e se cene struje sve do 2030, usled naglih kratkoro\u010dnih promena i uve\u0107anih tro\u0161kova za sirovine, dr\u017eati oko ili iznad stotinu evra po megavat-satu, a bazna elektri\u010dna energija je u Aurorinom centralnom scenariju izme\u0111u 70 i 80 evra za megavat-sat na dugi rok. Tu su glavni uzlazni faktor visoke cene sirovina, a kontrapritisak dolazi od sve ve\u0107eg prodora energije iz obnovljivih izvora.<\/p>\n

Oni koji ranije nastupe imaju prednost, jer nadolazi sve ja\u010da kanibalizacija<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Prose\u010dnim proizvodnim cenama struje \u0107e prvih godina pogodovati niski nivoi kanibalizacije u pore\u0111enju sa drugim zemljama u JIE, jer je kapacitet u sistemu ni\u017ei, pa je to prednost za one koji nastupe ranije, pi\u0161e u analizi. Zamajac u JIE u domenu skladi\u0161tenja energije vremenom se verovatno pro\u0161iruje na Zapadni Balkan.<\/p>\n

Dovr\u0161etak postupnog procesa odbacivanja uglja vi\u0111en 2045. godine<\/h3>\n

Brzina dekarbonizacije regiona ponajvi\u0161e zavisi od primene Mehanizma za prekograni\u010dno prilago\u0111avanje ugljenika (CBAM) u Evropskoj uniji ili uskla\u0111ivanja sa Sistemom EU za trgovanje emisijama (EU ETS). Odbacivanje lignita bi moglo da potraje, poru\u010dili su Aurorini eksperti i ekspertkinje, pa se potpuni prestanak upotrebe o\u010dekuje najkasnije 2045, ali se o\u010dekuje da \u0107e udeo tog \u010dvrstog fosilnog goriva u narednih deset godina znatno oslabiti, usled pritiska od CBAM-a i naplate emisija gasova s efektom staklene ba\u0161te.<\/p>\n

„Tr\u017ei\u0161ta struje na Zapadnom Balkanu prolaze kroz promene najbr\u017ee u Evropi. Termalni kapaciteti koji stare, liberalizacija tr\u017ei\u0161t\u00e2, mehanizmi podr\u0161ke kroz zakone i propise te sna\u017eni ekonomski fundamenti vode Zapadni Balkan ka najistaknutijim pozicijama u planovima developera“, izjavio je Panos Kefalas,<\/a> glavni istra\u017eiva\u010d u kompaniji Aurora Energy Research.<\/p>\n

Prognoza tr\u017ei\u0161ta struje i energije iz obnovljivih izvora Zapadnog Balkana Western Balkans Power and Renewables Market Forecast<\/em> investitorima, developerima i akterima pru\u017ea dubinski uvid, detaljnu analizu tr\u017ei\u0161ta i projekcije zasnovane na podacima.<\/p>\n

Osnovana 2013, Aurora Energy Research je provajder prognoza tr\u017ei\u0161ta struje i analitike za investicione i finansijske odluke. Sedi\u0161te joj je u Oksfordu, a radi u 16 kancelarija \u0161irom sveta i pokriva Evropu, Severnu i Ju\u017enu Ameriku, Aziju i Australiju. Usluge ove firme obuhvataju i perspektive tr\u017ei\u0161ta za u\u010desnike u energetskoj industriji, savetodavnu podr\u0161ku i softverske usluge.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Zapadnom Balkanu bi u periodu zaklju\u010dno sa 2040. moglo da predstoji uve\u0107anje kapaciteta za 20 gigavata, od \u010dega 65 odsto iz obnovljivih izvora, objavila je Aurora Energy 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