{"id":73672,"date":"2024-10-14T13:00:50","date_gmt":"2024-10-14T11:00:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/balkangreenenergynews.com\/rs\/?p=73672"},"modified":"2024-10-14T13:00:50","modified_gmt":"2024-10-14T11:00:50","slug":"baterije-za-elektricna-vozila-ce-pojeftiniti-50-odsto-do-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/balkangreenenergynews.com\/rs\/baterije-za-elektricna-vozila-ce-pojeftiniti-50-odsto-do-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Baterije za elektri\u010dna vozila \u0107e pojeftiniti 50 odsto do 2026."},"content":{"rendered":"

Prose\u010dne globalne cene baterija za elektri\u010dna vozila trebalo bi da do 2026. godine da budu 80 dolara po kilovat-satu, \u0161to je smanjenje od 50 odsto u odnosu na 2023. godinu, pokazala je analiza sektora za istra\u017eivanje ameri\u010dke banke Goldman Saks.<\/h2>\n

Prose\u010dne globalne cene baterija su pale sa 153 dolara po kilovat-satu (kWh) u 2022. na 149 dolara u 2023. godini, a prema projekcijama sektora Goldman Saks Istra\u017eivanje (eng. Goldman Sach Research) pa\u0161\u0107e na 111 dolara do kraja ove godine.<\/p>\n

Pad ko\u0161tanja baterija na 80 dolara, kako procenjuju istra\u017eiva\u010di ameri\u010dke banke, zna\u010dio bi da je postignut paritet tro\u0161kova posedovanja elektri\u010dnih i vozila na benzin u SAD, i to ne ra\u010dunaju\u0107i usbvencije. Oni o\u010dekuju da 2026. po\u010dne faza usvajanja elektri\u010dnih automobila koju \u0107e predvoditi sami kupci.<\/p>\n

Ina\u010de, tro\u0161ak baterije trenutno \u010dini oko 50 odsto ukupnih tro\u0161kova za proizvodnju elektr\u010dnog vozila, pa bi to moglo i da se odrazi na cenu za krajnjeg kupca.<\/p>\n

Glavni razlog za pad cena baterija je tehnolo\u0161ki napredak koji je omoguc\u0301io proizvo\u0111a\u010dima baterija za elektri\u010dna vozila da povec\u0301aju gustinu energije (eng. energy density), u kombinaciji sa pojeftinjenjem metala, koji se koriste u proizvodnji.<\/p>\n

\"baterije<\/p>\n

Nikil Bandarije, \u0161ef Goldman Saks Istra\u017eivanja za Azijsko-pacifi\u010dka istra\u017eivanja prirodnih resursa i \u010diste energije, ka\u017ee da sve vi\u0161e novih baterijskih proizvoda koji se pojavljuju na tr\u017ei\u0161tu ima oko 30 odsto vec\u0301u gustinu energije i ni\u017eu cenu.<\/p>\n

Sa druge stranje, cene metala su ni\u017ee, uklju\u010duju\u0107i litijuma i kobalta, a metali \u010dine skoro 60 odsto cene baterija. Otprilike vi\u0161e od 40 odsto smanjenja cena u periodu 2023-2030. dolazi zbog pojeftinjenja sirovine jer je bilo dosta zelene inflacije (eng. Green Inflation; rast cena komponenti, materijala i energije usled energetske tranzicije, prim.aut.) od 2020. do 2023, pa su cene metala bile visoke, naveo je Bandarije.<\/p>\n

Bandarije: U 2026. \u0107e u velikoj meri po\u010deti faza usvajanja elektri\u010dnih automobila koju \u0107e predvoditi kupci<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

On isti\u010de da se prilikom analize pariteta posedovanja elektri\u010dnog i auta sa motorom sa unutra\u0161njim sagorevanjem obi\u010dno posmatra koliko vremena \u0107e biti potrebno da se skuplja kupovina vozila na struju povrati kroz u\u0161tedu goriva. \u010cesto se, smatra, ne uzima u obzir cene elektri\u010dnih automobila padaju br\u017ee jer kupci smatraju da \u0107e brzo, mo\u017eda ve\u0107 za tri godine, mo\u0107i da kupe takav auto po ni\u017eim cenama.<\/p>\n

Uz o\u010dekivani pad cena baterija i relativno visokih cena sirove nafte, na tr\u017ei\u0161tima kao \u0161to su Sjedinjene Ameri\u010dke Dr\u017eave, o\u010dekujemo da se paritet tro\u0161kova posedovanja vozila elektri\u010dnih vozila i automobila sa motorom sa unutra\u0161nim sagorevanjem postigne 2026, navodi Bandarije.<\/p>\n

Potra\u017enja za baterijama za elektri\u010dna vozila \u0107e 2025. zavisiti od regulatornih uslova, ali \u0107e 2026. nastupiti sna\u017ean rast. U 2026. \u0107e u velikoj meri po\u010deti faza usvajanja elektri\u010dnih automobila koju \u0107e predvoditi kupci, isti\u010de Bandarije.<\/p>\n

Litijumske baterije dominiraju<\/h3>\n

On nagla\u0161ava da su dva vodec\u0301a tipa baterija zasnovana na litijumu: prvi sa niklom i drugi sa gvo\u017e\u0111em. Jedina tehnologija koja ne koristi litijum je natrijum-jonska baterija<\/a>, ali njen udeo na tr\u017ei\u0161tu je mali, a proizvodnja jo\u0161 nije dostigla industrijske razmere.<\/p>\n

Bandarije navodi da postoji vi\u0161e razloga za\u0161to je te\u0161ko u\u0107i na tr\u017ei\u0161te proizvodnje baterija. Od po\u010detka istra\u017eivanja i razvoja do prve proizvodnje potrebno je oko deset godina, a jo\u0161 vi\u0161e da se dostigne dobar kvalitet.<\/p>\n

Masovnu proizvodnju isti\u010de kao slede\u0107u prepreku, pa ima firmi koje posluju 10 do 15 godina, ali jo\u0161 uvek nisu rentabilne kada se pogleda kolika im je EBITDA. Kao trec\u0301i izazov vidi pronala\u017eenje kvalifikovane radne snage.<\/p>\n

Trenutno postoji pet kompanija koje kontroli\u0161u skoro 80 odsto tr\u017ei\u0161ta, dodaje Bandarije.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Glavni razlog za pad cena baterija je tehnolo\u0161ki napredak i pojeftinjenje metala, koji se koriste u proizvodnji, navodi Goldman Saks<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":73674,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[481],"tags":[807,707,1337],"class_list":["post-73672","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-vesti","tag-baterije","tag-elektricna-vozila","tag-elektricni-automobili","country-svet"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBaterije za elektri\u010dna vozila \u0107e pojeftiniti 50 odsto do 2026.<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Glavni razlog za pad cena baterija je tehnolo\u0161ki napredak i pojeftinjenje metala, koji se koriste u 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