{"id":66872,"date":"2024-02-26T15:55:49","date_gmt":"2024-02-26T14:55:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/balkangreenenergynews.com\/rs\/?p=66872"},"modified":"2024-03-18T14:53:04","modified_gmt":"2024-03-18T13:53:04","slug":"hoce-li-eps-smanjiti-cene-elektricne-energije-za-privredu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/balkangreenenergynews.com\/rs\/hoce-li-eps-smanjiti-cene-elektricne-energije-za-privredu\/","title":{"rendered":"Ho\u0107e li EPS smanjiti cene elektri\u010dne energije za privredu?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Autor: Du\u0161an Stanar<\/em><\/p>\n

Skoro celokupna privreda u Srbiji elektri\u010dnu energiju pla\u0107a 120 evra po megavat-satu, \u0161to je znatno skuplje nego \u0161to su trenutne cene na tr\u017ei\u0161tu. Sve njih snabdeva Elektroprivreda Srbije po ceni koju je propisala Vlada Srbije. Ta cena va\u017ei do 30. aprila, pa kupci energije na komercijalnom snabdevanju kod EPS-a sa nestrpljenjem o\u010dekuju koju \u0107e im cenu ponuditi ova dr\u017eavna kompanija, odnosno propisati dr\u017eava, kao i koliko \u0107e biti trajanje ponu\u0111enih ugovora.<\/h2>\n

Va\u017ee\u0107i ugovori od 120 evra po megavat-satu su terminski odre\u0111eni prema dinamici dogovorenoj u aran\u017emanu sa Me\u0111unarodnom monetarnom fondu (MMF)<\/a>, po kojoj je teoretski mogu\u0107e da EPS jo\u0161 jednom pove\u0107a svoje cene za 8% od 1. maja 2024, ali je iz izjava zvani\u010dnika jasno da je to malo verovatna opcija.<\/p>\n

Tako\u0111e, aran\u017emanom sa MMF su pove\u0107anja cene predvi\u0111ena samo u slu\u010daju da se odr\u017ei pokrivenost tro\u0161kova, a sude\u0107i prema rezultatima za prvih devet meseci 2023. i neto dobitkom od 87,4 milijardi dinara jasno je da je EPS vi\u0161e ne mora da brine o pokrivenosti tro\u0161kova.<\/p>\n

\"cena
Kretanje cene elektri\u010dne energije u relevantnim periodima<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

U novembru 2023. kada je EPS formirao trenutno va\u017ee\u0107u cenu od 120 evra po megavat-satu, tr\u017ei\u0161ni forwardi (ugovori za prodaju elektri\u010dne energije u unapred odre\u0111enom trenutku u budu\u0107nosti) za nekoliko narednih mesecu su bili skuplji za oko 10 evra po megavat-satu, tako da je jasno da je EPS pratio tr\u017ei\u0161na o\u010dekivanja i \u010dak nudio povoljniju cenu.<\/p>\n

Blaga zima „povukla“ cene gasa i struje nadole<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Me\u0111utim, Evropa je iskusila drugu zaredom veoma blagu zimu, sa temperaturama koje su na severozapadu kontinenta pri kraju godine bile i oko 10 stepeni Celzijusa ni\u017ee od tridesetogodi\u0161njih proseka. Time je zna\u010dajno smanjena potro\u0161nja gasa i evropska skladi\u0161ta gasa su imala najvi\u0161e nivoe popunjenosti u poslednjih pet godina.<\/p>\n

\"cena
Procenat popunjenosti evropskih skladi\u0161ta gasa<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

To je dovelo do ni\u017ee cene gasa, a sa cenom gasa pala i cene elektri\u010dne energije i tako je do\u0161lo do zna\u010dajne razlike izme\u0111u tr\u017ei\u0161ne i EPS-ove cene. Ta razlika bi mogla jo\u0161 vi\u0161e rasti ukoliko se ostvare forwardi koji su trenutno aktuelni za slede\u0107a tri meseca, u kojima je o\u010dekivano da cena elektri\u010dne energije nastavlja da pada i gotovo dolazi do prekriznih nivoa.<\/p>\n

U malo verovatnom, teoretskom, slu\u010daju da EPS ne ponudi cenu koja bi bila u skladu sa trenutnim tr\u017ei\u0161nim i o\u010dekivanim, verovatno da jedan deo privrede ne bi produ\u017eio ugovore sa EPS i po\u010deo bi da se snabdeva sa tr\u017ei\u0161ta.<\/p>\n

Ako EPS ne ponudi ni\u017eu cenu, jedan deo privrede verovatno ne bi produ\u017eio ugovore<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Me\u0111utim, uzev\u0161i sve navedeno u obzir i uz pretpostavku da ne\u0107e biti ozbiljnijih tr\u017ei\u0161nih oscilacija izazvanih neo\u010dekivanim faktorima kojima smo bili svedoci prethodnih godina (COVID 2020, energetska kriza 2021. i Ukrajina 2022.), verovatno je da ne\u0107e do\u0107i do pove\u0107anja cena za komercijalne kupce, ve\u0107 \u0107emo posle du\u017ee vremena videti pad EPS-ovih cena i ponudu koja je u skladu sa sada\u0161njim tr\u017ei\u0161nim i o\u010dekivanim.<\/p>\n

Osim nove cene ostaje i pitanje trajanja tih novih ugovora i da li \u0107e oni va\u017eiti do kraja 2024. ili \u0107e ipak biti kra\u0107i, na primer do po\u010detka grejne sezone 2024\/2025.<\/p>\n

Obzirom da je tr\u017ei\u0161te jo\u0161 nestabilno i sklono poreme\u0107ajima, ima vi\u0161e smisla da \u0107emo videti kra\u0107e ugovore koji \u0107e poku\u0161ati pratiti tr\u017ei\u0161te, nego du\u017ee ugovore koji bi mogli onda i du\u017ee odstupati od tr\u017ei\u0161nih nivoa.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Du\u0161an Stanar pi\u0161e o tome \u0161ta \u010deka privredu od 1. maja, do kada va\u017ei trenutna cena struje od 120 evra po megavat-satu<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":66883,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[504,484],"tags":[2056,6498,669,1307,190,5490],"class_list":["post-66872","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-elektricna-energija","category-u-fokusu","tag-cena-elektricne-energije","tag-cene-struje","tag-elektricna-energija","tag-elektroprivreda-srbije","tag-eps","tag-prirodni-gas","country-srbija"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHo\u0107e li EPS smanjiti cene elektri\u010dne energije za privredu?<\/title>\n<meta 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