{"id":55031,"date":"2023-01-13T11:45:08","date_gmt":"2023-01-13T10:45:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/balkangreenenergynews.com\/rs\/?p=55031"},"modified":"2023-01-13T11:45:08","modified_gmt":"2023-01-13T10:45:08","slug":"svetski-ekonomski-forum-deceniju-koja-dolazi-obelezice-ekoloske-i-drustvene-krize","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/balkangreenenergynews.com\/rs\/svetski-ekonomski-forum-deceniju-koja-dolazi-obelezice-ekoloske-i-drustvene-krize\/","title":{"rendered":"Svetski ekonomski forum: Deceniju koja dolazi obele\u017ei\u0107e ekolo\u0161ke i dru\u0161tvene krize"},"content":{"rendered":"

Svet ulazi u doba kombinovanih kriza usled kojih se javljaju nesta\u0161ice resursa, a rasplet \u0107e direktno zavisiti od odnosa prema za\u0161titi \u017eivotne sredine i ubla\u017eavanju klimatskih promena na globalnom nivou, navodi se u izve\u0161taju Svetskog ekonomskog foruma (WEF). U analizi su razmatrani rizici koji \u0107e oblikovati neizvesni i turbulentni period od narednih desetak godina, a o\u010dekuje se da \u0107e ga karakterisati ekolo\u0161ki i dru\u0161tveni poreme\u0107aji.<\/h2>\n

Analiza globalnih rizika – Global Risks Report 2023<\/em><\/a>, koju je uradio Svetski ekonomski forum, pokazuje da \u0107e pored ekonomske recesije, sukoba i ratova, glavna pretnja za \u010dove\u010danstvo u narednoj deceniji biti razni oblici ekolo\u0161ke krize.<\/p>\n

U naredne dve godine, rizik je najve\u0107i na polju tro\u0161kova \u017eivota, dok je pretnja od neuspeha klimatske akcije, ubla\u017eavanja i prilago\u0111avanja<\/a> na klimatske promene okarakterisana kao najve\u0107i rizik sa kojim se \u010dove\u010danstvo suo\u010dava u slede\u0107oj deceniji.<\/p>\n

U naredne dve godine, rizik je najve\u0107i na polju tro\u0161kova \u017eivota, a u celokupnoj deceniji obuhva\u0107enoj izve\u0161tajem prednja\u010di potencijalni neuspeh klimatske akcije<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Globalni rizici su svrstani su nekoliko kategorija. U izve\u0161taju se analiziraju ekonomski, geopoliti\u010dki, dru\u0161tveni, tehnolo\u0161ki i rizici iz domena \u017eivotne sredine koji su najprisutniji u prognozama za naredne dve godine i za deset.<\/p>\n

Vratila se inflacija i neke stare i zaboravljene krize<\/h3>\n

Vratili su se neki „stari rizici“, poput inflacije, krize tro\u0161kova \u017eivota, trgovinskih ratova, odliva kapitala sa tr\u017ei\u0161ta u razvoju, dru\u0161tvenih nemira, geopoliti\u010dkih konfrontacija i pretnji nuklearnog rata, upozorava WEF.<\/p>\n

\u010cove\u010danstvo ulazi u doba niskog ekonomskog rasta i slabe me\u0111unarodne saradnje, dok kompromisna re\u0161enja rizikuju da naru\u0161e klimatsku akciju, globalni razvoj i buduc\u0301u otpornost dr\u017eava i globalne zajednice, navodi se u analizi.<\/p>\n

Kratkoro\u010dni i dugoro\u010dni rizici stvaraju nove polikrize<\/h3>\n

Autori su koristili tri vremenska okvira za razumevanje globalnih rizika. Razmatran je uticaj trenutnih kriza odnosno globalnih rizika koji se vec\u0301 razvijaju i za koje se o\u010dekuje da c\u0301e se materijalizovati u roku od dve godine. Akutni rizici za 2023. su poreme\u0107aji u snabdevanju energentima<\/a> i hranom i rastuc\u0301a inflacija.<\/p>\n

U slede\u0107ih desetak godina sve manje dr\u017eava c\u0301e imati fiskalni prostor za ulaganja u buduc\u0301i rast i zelene tehnologije<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

U izve\u0161taju se razmatraju najve\u0107i rizici u roku od deset godina, koji bi mogli da se pretvore u krize. Sve manje dr\u017eava c\u0301e imati fiskalni prostor za ulaganja u buduc\u0301i rast, zelene tehnologije, obrazovanje, negu i zdravstvene sisteme, navode autori.<\/p>\n

Tako\u0111e, ovako identifikovani kratkoro\u010dni i dugoro\u010dni faktori rizika bi mogli da evoluiraju i da se pojave kao polikriza, gde razli\u010dite krize me\u0111usobno deluju tako da njihov ukupan uticaj daleko prevazilazi zbir svakog dela. Izme\u0111u ostalog, do 2030. godine je velika opasnost od nesta\u0161ica prirodnih resursa, napominje se u izve\u0161taju.<\/p>\n

Ekolo\u0161ki rizici ima\u0107e najve\u0107i uticaj na globalnu zajednicu<\/h3>\n

Gubitak biodiverziteta i kolaps ekosistema smatraju se jednim od globalnih rizika koji \u0107e najdrasti\u010dnije da se pogor\u0161aju u narednoj deceniji. Na rang-listi deset rizika, \u0161est je iz domena \u017eivotne sredine, kako u kratkoro\u010dnim tako i u dugoro\u010dnim procenama.<\/p>\n

Za klimatske i ekolo\u0161ke rizike smo najmanje spremni<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Me\u0111utim, za klimatske i ekolo\u0161ke rizike smo najmanje spremni, tvrde autori izve\u0161taja. Oni konstatuju da izostaje duboki i uskla\u0111eni globalni napredak u ostvarenju ciljeva klimatskih akcija.<\/p>\n

Velika je razlika izme\u0111u onoga \u0161to je nauka utvrdila kao neophodno za postizanje neto nula emisija i onoga \u0161to je politi\u010dki izvodljivo<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Napori za ubla\u017eavanje klimatskih promena i prilago\u0111avanje na izmenjene klimatske uslove su postavljeni u rizi\u010dne kompromise. Postoji velika razlika izme\u0111u onoga \u0161to je nauka utvrdila kao neophodno za postizanje neto nula emisija i onoga \u0161to je politi\u010dki izvodljivo, navodi se u aktuelnom WEF-ovom godi\u0161njem pregledu.<\/p>\n

Opterec\u0301enje prirodnih ekosistema \u0107e dalje da ja\u010da, s obzirom na njihovu potcenjenu ulogu u globalnoj privredi<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Opterec\u0301enje i destrukcija prirodnih ekosistema jo\u0161 vi\u0161e \u0107e da raste, s obzirom na njihovu jo\u0161 uvek potcenjenu ulogu u globalnoj privredi i ukupnom zdravlju planete. Ali i kao posledica re\u0161avanja trenutnih kriza, napominje se u izve\u0161taju.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Pregled globalnih rizika za period od 2 i od 10 godina<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Ukoliko se zna\u010dajno ne promene politika<\/a> ili ne bude dovoljno ulaganja<\/a>, interakcija uticaja klimatskih promena, gubitka biodiverziteta, bezbednosti hrane i potro\u0161nje prirodnih resursa ubrza\u0107e kolaps ugro\u017eenih ekosistema. Takva polikriza bi zatim mogla da ugrozi snabdevanje hranom i osnovne prihode ljudi u klimatski osetljivim privredama, pove\u0107a \u0161tetu od prirodnih katastrofa i ograni\u010di napredak u ubla\u017eavanju klimatskih promena, upozoravaju autori.<\/p>\n

Vi\u0161e povezanih rizika nagove\u0161tava krizu resursa u bliskoj budu\u0107nosti<\/h3>\n

Autori upozoravaju na uru\u0161avanje saradnje u geopoliti\u010dkom smislu i isti\u010du da \u0107e to poja\u010dati polikrizu iz me\u0111usobno povezanih ekolo\u0161kih, geopoliti\u010dkih<\/a> i socioekonomskih rizika u domenu ponude i potra\u017enje za prirodnim resursima.<\/p>\n

Slabljenje saradnje na geopoliti\u010dkom planu pove\u0107ava rizike vezane za prirodne resurse<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Izve\u0161taj opisuje \u010detiri scenarija usredsre\u0111ena na nesta\u0161ice hrane, vode, metala i minerala. Ovako povezani rizici prete da izazovu humanitarne i ekolo\u0161ke krize, po\u010dev od ratova za vodu i gladi do kontinuirane prekomerne eksploatacije ekolo\u0161kih resursa<\/a> i usporavanja u merama za ubla\u017eavanje klimatskih promena i prilago\u0111avanje na njih.<\/p>\n

Jedini optimizam je da se deluje odmah<\/h3>\n

U optimisti\u010dnoj noti ovogodi\u0161njeg izve\u0161taja, nagla\u0161eno je da jo\u0161 uvek postoji prozor za oblikovanje sigurnije buduc\u0301nosti \u010dove\u010danstva kroz efikasniju pripremu.<\/p>\n

Neki od rizika opisanih u ovogodi\u0161njem izve\u0161taju su blizu ta\u010dke bez povratka. Sada je trenutak da se deluje kolektivno, odlu\u010dno i sa dugoro\u010dnim ciljevima, napominju autori uo\u010di Svetskog ekonomskog foruma u Davosu.<\/p>\n

Ulaganje u otpornost mora biti fokusirano na prevazila\u017eenje kombinovanih rizika, na primer na finansiranje mera za prilago\u0111avanje klimatskim promenama i njihovo ubla\u017eavanje, kao na oblasti koje ja\u010daju ljudski kapital i razvoj, poru\u010dili su eksperti iz WEF-a.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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