{"id":34933,"date":"2020-10-30T17:52:06","date_gmt":"2020-10-30T16:52:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/balkangreenenergynews.com\/rs\/?p=34933"},"modified":"2020-11-02T09:02:14","modified_gmt":"2020-11-02T08:02:14","slug":"globalno-zagrevanje-ce-bez-drasticnih-mera-dostici-kobna-33-stepena","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/balkangreenenergynews.com\/rs\/globalno-zagrevanje-ce-bez-drasticnih-mera-dostici-kobna-33-stepena\/","title":{"rendered":"Globalno zagrevanje \u0107e bez drasti\u010dnih mera dosti\u0107i kobna 3,3 stepena"},"content":{"rendered":"

I uz o\u010dekivanu ekspanziju energije iz obnovljivih izvora, planeta se suo\u010dava s ogromnim rastom temperature, naveo je BloombergNEF u svojoj studiji. Globalno zagrevanje za 3,3 stepena Celzijusa do 2100. ozbiljno bi poja\u010dalo rizik od nepovratnih promena klimatskih obrazaca. Investicije neophodne do 2050. za izbegavanje ovog scenarija procenjene su na do 130 biliona dolara.<\/h2>\n

Iako \u0107e virus korona oboriti emisije u energetskom sektoru,<\/a> i to u obimu ekvivalentnom periodu od dve i po godine da nije bilo pandemije, a koli\u010dina ispu\u0161tenih gasova s efektom staklene ba\u0161te je lane po svoj prilici dostigla vrhunac, jo\u0161 je dalek put pred energetskom politikom i investicijama da se globalno zagrevanje ubla\u017ei do prihvatljivog nivoa, saop\u0161tio je BloombergNEF.<\/a><\/p>\n

New Energy Outlook 2020<\/em> daje procenu izme\u0111u 78 i 130 biliona dolara za dodatne investicije potrebne do 2050. da se spre\u010di katastrofalan scenario odnosno da se porast globalne temperature ograni\u010di na nivo mnogo ni\u017ei od dva stepena Celzijusa, \u0161to je osnovni cilj<\/a> propisan Pariskim sporazumom. Trenutna energetska politika i planirane investicije vode ka pove\u0107anju od 3,3 stepena, stoji u studiji.<\/p>\n

Razlika se ra\u010duna prema prose\u010dnim temperaturama iz predindustrijskog doba.<\/p>\n

Solarne, vetroelektrane su me\u0111u klju\u010dnim faktorima u energetskoj tranziciji<\/h3>\n

Predstoje\u0107a decenija je prelomna, po re\u010dima generalnog direktora BNEF-a Jona Moorea. Br\u017ei napredak je neophodan posebno u proizvodnji struje od vetra<\/a> i solarnim elektranama,<\/a> zatim uvo\u0111enju elektri\u010dnih vozila, malih pogona za proizvodnju energije iz obnovljivih izvora i tehnologije grejanja s niskim emisijama ugljenika, kao \u0161to su toplotne pumpe, te razvoju goriva bez ispu\u0161tanja gasova s efektom staklene ba\u0161te, kazao je. U izve\u0161taju se posebno isti\u010de uloga vodonika.<\/p>\n

Emisije moraju da se obaraju po \u0161est procenata svake godine da bi rast temperature ostao mnogo ni\u017ei od dva stepena<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Ova istra\u017eiva\u010dka firma je navela da su emisije od energenata na putu da se ove godine smanje osam odsto i da se nikad ne vrate na nivo iz 2019. godine. O\u010dekuje se da ponovo krenu da rastu s oporavkom privrede, a zatim da padaju po 0,7 odsto godi\u0161nje od 2027. do 2050, pi\u0161e u radu.<\/p>\n

„Da bismo zadr\u017eali globalni rast temperature na mnogo ni\u017eem nivou od dva stepena, mora\u0107emo odmah da krenemo da obaramo emisije za po \u0161est procenata svake godine, a da bismo globalno zagrevanje ograni\u010dili na 1,5 stepeni Celzijusa, emisije bi morale da se smanjuju za po 10 odsto godi\u0161nje“, izjavio je Matthias Kimmel, vi\u0161i analiti\u010dar iz BNEF-a i koautor izve\u0161taja.<\/p>\n

Ekspanzija prirodnog gasa se nastavlja do sredine veka<\/h3>\n

Vetar i solar u osnovnom scenariju \u010dine 56 odsto svetske proizvodnje elektri\u010dne energije na sredini stole\u0107a, a zajedno sa baterijama privu\u0107i \u0107e 80 odsto od 15,1 biliona dolara ulaganja u nove kapacitete za struju, prema rezultatima analize. U mre\u017eu se ula\u017ee dodatnih 14 biliona dolara. Sve skupa, projekcija je optimisti\u010dnija nego u ranijim verzijama godi\u0161nje studije i za to je dovoljno samo kretanje tro\u0161kova nani\u017ee.<\/a><\/p>\n

Potra\u017enja za naftom je na putanji ka vrhuncu 2035. godine, posle \u010dega bi trebalo da slabi, najvi\u0161e zbog prodora elektri\u010dnih automobila, po BNEF-ovoj ra\u010dunici. Prirodni gas je jedino fosilno gorivo koje nastavlja da se \u0161iri do 2050. godine, po stopi od pola procenta godi\u0161nje i najvi\u0161e u zgradama i industriji, otkriveno je u studiji.<\/p>\n

Podaci pokazuju da je potra\u017enja za ugljem<\/a> 2018. stigla do maksimuma i da \u0107e se njen udeo u primarnoj energiji spustiti na 18 odsto sa sada\u0161njih 26.<\/p>\n

Projektovano globalno zagrevanje od 3,3 stepena nije iznena\u0111enje<\/h3>\n

Vanredni profesor Fizi\u010dkog fakulteta u Beogradu Vladimir \u0110ur\u0111evi\u0107<\/a> ka\u017ee da bi globalno zagrevanje od preko dva stepena poja\u010dalo rizike od velikih materijalnih gubitaka i dostizanja ta\u010daka bez povratka u klimatskom sistemu. On je za Balkan Green Energy News izjavio da bi svet onda pro\u0161ao kroz „dramati\u010dnu transformaciju i suo\u010dio se s ekstremnim vremenskim i klimatskim doga\u0111ajima“.<\/p>\n

\u0110ur\u0111evi\u0107: Svet mo\u017ee pogoditi dramati\u010dna transformacija, s ekstremnim nepogodama i klimatskim doga\u0111ajima<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Me\u0111utim, on je rekao da ga procena da \u0107e temperatura porasti za 3,3 stepena ne iznena\u0111uje. Projekcije vezane za globalno zagrevanje su se poslednjih godina smanjile za izme\u0111u pola i jednog stepena Celzijusa, u skladu s promenama u energetskoj i klimatskoj politici, i napredak je samo delimi\u010dan, naglasio je.<\/p>\n

Povoljna predvi\u0111anja za neke oblasti moglo bi da poni\u0161ti potencijalno pogor\u0161avanje drugih faktora, dodao je \u0110ur\u0111evi\u0107.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Planeta se suo\u010dava s ogromnim rastom temperature. 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