\u010cak i bez novih pogona i isklju\u010duju\u0107i uticaj agregata na naftu, postoje\u0107i kapaciteti za dobijanje elektri\u010dne energije iz ostalih fosilnih goriva ispustili bi 220 gigatona vi\u0161e ugljen-dioksida, CO2, pre planirane demonta\u017ee nego \u0161to odgovara najambicioznijim ciljevima za globalnu temperaturu, ka\u017eu nau\u010dnici.<\/p>\n
Grupa sa Katedre za nauku o Zemlji na Univerzitetu Kalifornija u Ervajnu izra\u010dunali su da klimatski ciljevi izra\u017eeni u emisijama gasova s efektom staklene ba\u0161te trenutno zavise od veoma ranog deinstaliranja svih elektrana na gas i ugalj.<\/p>\n
Vi\u0161ak od 220 gigatona CO2 va\u017ei za ograni\u010davanje porasta temperature od preindustrijskog doba na 1,5 stepeni Celzijusa do kraja veka. Kako sada stvari stoje, za lak\u0161i cilj, dva stepena, i dalje ima 188 gigatona CO2 previ\u0161e, navodi se u radu objavljenom u \u010dasopisu Environmental Research Letters.<\/p>\n
Studija isklju\u010duje planirane termoelektrane, elektroagregate na naftu te efekte potencijalnih re\u0161enja da se ugljenik izvla\u010di iz atmosfere<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
Elektrana na ugalj obi\u010dno radi 39 godina, u pore\u0111enju sa 36 godina kod sistema na gas. Ukoliko nastave da proizvode do kraja projektovanog radnog veka, ne bi mogao da bude postignut ni cilj porasta temperature do tri stepena,<\/a> jer je za njega iza\u0161ao vi\u0161ak od 112 gigatona CO2.<\/p>\n
Agregati na naftu \u010dine manje od pet odsto kapaciteta za struju. Bez ozbiljnih negativnih emisija, na primer pomo\u0107u i dalje slabo razvijene tehnologije skladi\u0161tenja ugljenika, bio bi potreban ogroman doprinos ostalih grana privrede.<\/p>\n
Jedina druga varijanta za postizanje klimatskih kvota je da se sistemi na gas i ugalj deaktiviraju deset do trideset godina pre roka,<\/a> pokazuje studija. Taj scenario je dobijen iz 171 integrisanog modela procene, sa \u0161est glavnih putanja.<\/p>\n
Ukoliko do\u010dekaju kraj svog \u017eivotnog ciklusa, samo trenutno aktivne termoelektrane koje tro\u0161e ugalj i prirodni gas ostavile bi ugljeni\u010dni suficit klimi \u010dak i da je cilj globalno zagrevanje ispod tri stepena<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
Privatni investitori i vlade<\/a> ra\u010dunaju na bilione dolara od postoje\u0107ih termoenergetskih sistema, upozorava tim na \u010delu sa Stevenom Davisom. Ukazao je na ogromne socijalne i ekonomske posledice<\/a> zbog tro\u0161kova na ime drasti\u010dno ranijeg ga\u0161enja postrojenja \u010dak i ne ra\u010dunaju\u0107i izazov da se ona na vreme zamene radi nastavka zadovoljavanja potra\u017enje. \u010cak bi bila ugro\u017eena stabilnost finansijskog sistema.<\/p>\n
Kina bi povukla najve\u0107i teret od ranih zatvaranja, budu\u0107i da se tamo nalazi polovina aktivnih termoelektrana na ugalj i da su relativno nove. \u0160teta po \u017eivotnu sredinu od odr\u017eavanja tih pogona do kraja, po projektu, u Sjedinjenim Dr\u017eavama bi bila 26 procenata ni\u017ea nego u najmnogoljudnijoj zemlji, a slede Indija sa 53 i Zapadna Evropa \u2013 87 procenata.<\/p>\n
Pola aktivnog kapaciteta na ugalj je u Kini, a njene elektrane su mnogo novije nego u SAD, Indiji i Zapadnoj Evropi.<\/p>\n
Istra\u017eiva\u010di su ukazali na politiku dr\u017eavnih podsticaja za zatvaranje pre roka ili ograni\u010denost radnog vremena, napla\u0107ivanje emisija \u0161tetnih gasova, zabranu rekonstrukcije i subvencionisanje tehnologija s kojima nema emisija.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Ukoliko se re\u0161enja za postizanje neto negativnih emisija ne razviju u znatnoj meri u srednjem…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":27,"featured_media":31271,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[504,4],"tags":[669,4220,1854,883,766,5490,4933,5440],"class_list":["post-31270","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-elektricna-energija","category-zivotna-sredina","tag-elektricna-energija","tag-emisije-gasova-sa-efektom-staklene-baste","tag-energetska-tranzicija","tag-globalno-zagrevanje","tag-klimatske-promene","tag-prirodni-gas","tag-termoelektrane","tag-ukidanje-upotrebe-uglja","country-svet"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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