{"id":29136,"date":"2020-04-08T12:35:46","date_gmt":"2020-04-08T10:35:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/balkangreenenergynews.com\/rs\/?p=29136"},"modified":"2020-05-02T13:35:47","modified_gmt":"2020-05-02T11:35:47","slug":"kada-shit-hits-the-fan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/balkangreenenergynews.com\/rs\/kada-shit-hits-the-fan\/","title":{"rendered":"Kada shit hits the fan"},"content":{"rendered":"

Autorica: mr. sc. Maja Pokrovac, direktorica gospodarskog udru\u017eenja Obnovljivi izvori energije Hrvatske (OIEH)<\/em><\/p>\n

Sad nam je svima jasno – svijet se doslovce preko no\u0107i stubokom promijenio. Virusna pandemija koja je pogodila cijelo \u010dovje\u010danstvo pokazala je koliko je zapravo svjetsko gospodarstvo osjetljivo, a kad zagusti postane i rascjepkano.<\/h2>\n

Trenutni pad cijena i potra\u017enje nafte, uvelike uzrokovan zna\u010dajnim smanjenjem putovanja i ekonomskih aktivnosti zbog pandemije COVID-19, u kombinaciji s ratom cijena saudijske i ruske nafte, istodobno je smanjio emisije stakleni\u010dkih plinova.<\/p>\n

\u010cini se da \u0107e globalna gospodarska kriza uzrokovana koronavirusom, kako pokazuju brojna istra\u017eivanja, potaknuti smanjenje emisija uglji\u010dnog dioksida ove godine prvi put nakon financijske krize 2008., a jedna od mnogih projekcija pokazuje ukupni godi\u0161nji pad u rasponu od 0,3 do 1,2 posto.<\/p>\n

NASA-ine satelitske snimke smanjenja zaga\u0111enja u Kini doista su iznena\u0111uju\u0107e – u roku od \u010detiri tjedna \u0161tetne su emisije pale za 25 posto! Na potpuno neo\u010dekivan na\u010din dobili smo priliku vidjeti kako bi, zapravo, mogla izgledati budu\u0107nost okrenuta \u010distoj energiji.<\/p>\n

No,\u00a0da naglasimo odmah,\u00a0do toga nije do\u0161lo zbog pametne energetske strategije, a pad emisija, kad se stvari vrate u normalu, ionako ne\u0107e biti dugoro\u010dno odr\u017eiv. No, ukazao je na dvije va\u017ene stvari:\u00a0budu\u0107nost \u010diste energije i potrebu\u00a0klimatskog djelovanja.<\/p>\n

Globalna pandemija s tisu\u0107ama smrtnih slu\u010dajeva, rastu\u0107om nezaposlenosti i padom ekonomskih\u00a0aktivnosti, \u0161to je dovelo i do smanjenja emisija CO2, zadnji je poziv na bu\u0111enje svijesti o razmjerima klimatskih izazova\u00a0koji su pred nama i\u00a0neodgodivosti njihova rje\u0161avanja.<\/p>\n

Smanjenje emisija ove godine moglo bi kupiti malo vi\u0161e vremena za djelovanje na klimatske promjene, no kako upozorava think tank Atlantic Council, ako\u00a0niske cijene fosilnih energenata i\u00a0usporavanje gospodarskog rasta zaustave\u00a0razvoj i uvo\u0111enje \u010distih energetskih tehnologija\u00a0te ako kreatori politika ne budu djelovali tako da iskoriste ekonomske poticajne planove za potporu tranziciji s niskim udjelom ugljika, satelitske snimke one\u010di\u0161\u0107enja brzo \u0107e se vratiti na prija\u0161nje stanje. Kao \u0161to se to ve\u0107 po\u010dinje doga\u0111ati u Kini.<\/p>\n

Koronavirus je u\u0161ao u gotovo sve sektore i lance opskrbe pa tako i u proizvodnju elektri\u010dne energije. Zamislimo apokalipti\u010dni scenarij u kojem, na primjer, ruska plinska polja, bosanske termoelektrane ili francuske nuklearne elektrane moraju prestati s proizvodnjom jer nema dovoljno ljudi za njihov siguran rad. Ako dr\u017eave koje su vlasnici takvih objekata ne budu imale dovoljno energije za doma\u0107u potro\u0161nju i izvoz – \u0161to \u0107e od to dvoje prvo biti na udaru?<\/p>\n

Mo\u017eemo li se osloniti na to da \u0107e i u takvim uvjetima vladati neporeme\u0107eni tr\u017ei\u0161ni odnosi i da ne\u0107e biti otkazivanja ugovora o isporuci energije? Ili da ne\u0107e biti znatnog dizanja cijena potaknutih ve\u0107om potra\u017enjom uvoza?<\/p>\n

Pandemija je poremetila sve lance opskrbe energijom i to ba\u0161 u trenutku kada je globalni prelazak na \u010distu energiju po\u010deo ja\u010dati. \u010ciste energetske tehnologije\u00a0koje pokre\u0107u globalne ciljeve s niskim udjelom ugljika\u00a0polako su \u0161irile svoj domet, razvijaju\u0107i lance opskrbe koji se prote\u017eu od Kine, preko Europe, do SAD-a.<\/p>\n

Uza sve to, aktualni doga\u0111aji suo\u010dili su nas\u00a0i\u00a0s \u010dinjenicom da se, globalno gledaju\u0107i,\u00a0na\u0161i dugoro\u010dni nacionalni, sigurnosni i klimatski interesi sukobljavaju s prekomjernom ovisno\u0161\u0107u o jednoj regiji za su\u0161tinske dijelove tehnologije proizvodnje \u010diste energije.<\/p>\n

Zato\u00a0pojedini\u00a0stru\u010dnjaci i analiti\u010dari glasno\u00a0poru\u010duju da je krajnje vrijeme da donosioci politika\u00a0i privatni sektor krenu uspostavljati mjere za ponovnu\u00a0ravnote\u017eu\u00a0i diverzifikaciju opskrbe pri \u010demu se dosada\u0161nja zelena agenda nikako ne bi smjela izgubiti iz vida.<\/p>\n

Europsko udru\u017eenje WindEurope naglasilo je ulogu vjetroelektrana u osiguravanju kontinuirane opskrbe elektri\u010dnom energijom zbog \u010dega je klju\u010dno da industrija i dalje nastavi proizvoditi opremu i komponente za ove pogone.<\/p>\n

SolarPower Europe zala\u017ee se za to da industrija OIE dobije svoje mjesto u EU industrijskoj strategiji. Solarna energija, kao najjeftinija tehnologija koja se lako implementira, tu mo\u017ee odigrati va\u017enu ulogu.<\/p>\n

Svi oblici obnovljivih izvora \u2013 solar, vjetar, biomasa, bioplin, geotermal, trenutno se suo\u010davaju s brojnim izazovima u proizvodnji elektri\u010dne energije: ote\u017ean im je transport, odr\u017eavanje elektrana, nabava opreme, rezervnih dijelova, sirovine te zna\u010dajno ograni\u010deno kretanje radne snage.<\/p>\n

U cilju o\u010duvanja radnih mjesta, ali i osiguravanja kontinuirane opskrbe elektri\u010dnom energijom te osvje\u0161\u0107ivanja strate\u0161ke va\u017enosti proizvodnje iz vlastitih obnovljivih izvora, na ovaj se sektor ne smije zaboraviti. U trenucima neke sljede\u0107e krize upravo nam on mo\u017ee biti va\u017ean oslonac!<\/p>\n

Me\u0111unarodna energetska agencija (IEA) upozorila je da \u0107e koronavirus svakako oslabiti globalna ulaganja u \u010distu energiju i napore za smanjenje emisija. Stoga je apelirala na vlade da ne izgube iz vida klimatske izazove i \u010dista energetska rje\u0161enja dok izra\u0111uju stimulativne pakete mjera za suzbijanje ekonomske \u0161tete od pandemije koronavirusa.<\/p>\n

I europski znanstvenici, industrija i nevladin sektor smatraju kako je presudno uklju\u010divanje zelene tranzicije u europski paket potpora u borbi protiv pandemije.<\/p>\n

Ideja kombiniranja ekonomskih poticaja sa za\u0161titom klime \u010dak i nije nova. Od financijske krize 2008. vlade su usmjerile zna\u010dajna sredstva za smanjenje emisije stakleni\u010dkih plinova i ve\u0107e kori\u0161tenje obnovljive energije.<\/p>\n

Velika je\u00a0vjerojatnost da sektor OIE u ovom trenutku ne\u0107e biti na listi prioriteta te da \u0107e se \u00a0manje sredstava ulagati u dekarbonizaciju. To \u0107e pak utjecati na dinamiku energetske tranzicije u godinama koje dolaze.<\/p>\n

Prema jednom od scenarija do\u0107i \u0107e do sni\u017eavanja cijene nafte i plina te daljnjeg pove\u0107anja emisija stakleni\u010dkih plinova.\u00a0 Naftne kompanije koje su se obvezale smanjiti emisiju uglji\u010dnog dioksida i diverzificirati svoje poslovanje ulaze\u0107i u projekte zelene tehnologije, mogle bi se povu\u0107i iz toga.<\/p>\n

Scenarij suprotan prethodnome predvi\u0111a nestabilne cijene nafte u sljede\u0107im mjesecima, \u0161to\u00a0bi, pak,\u00a0moglo dovesti do diverzifikacije portfelja i\u00a0pove\u0107anja ulaganja u OIE, kao i tehnologije vodika, elektri\u010dnih vozila i skladi\u0161tenja energije. \u00a0Oni bi u tom slu\u010daju mo\u017eda imali manji, ali zato stabilan povrat, a u realizaciji sada\u0161njih i razvoju budu\u0107ih OIE projekata te ja\u010danju OIE tr\u017ei\u0161ta, svakako bi mogle \u00a0pomo\u0107i i niske kamatne stope.<\/p>\n

Ipak, vrlo prizemljeno gledaju\u0107i, koronavirus trenutno je\u00a0uzrok najve\u0107eg\u00a0zastoja\u00a0energetske tranzicije. \u00a0Osim toga,\u00a0postoji bojazan da \u0107e\u00a0nedostatak solidarnosti me\u0111u europskim zemljama u suo\u010davanju s krizom zbog pandemije koronavirusa utjecati na sposobnost nastavka vo\u0111enja zajedni\u010dke klimatske politike.<\/p>\n

Trenuta\u010dno je prerano donositi zaklju\u010dke o posljedicama pandemije. Aktualno je stanje bez presedana i budu\u0107i scenariji su razli\u010diti.\u00a0No,\u00a0trenutne cijene nafte jasan su pokazatelj koliko su\u00a0tehnologije \u010diste energije zna\u010dajne i za\u0161to brzo moraju pobolj\u0161ati svoju konkurentnost.<\/p>\n

Potreba za \u010distom doma\u0107om energijom – lokalnom energijom \u010dija proizvodnja ne ovisi o turbulentnim me\u0111unarodnim odnosima, postaje\u00a0strate\u0161ki va\u017ena.\u00a0Premda,\u00a0uz koronavirus, energetska tranzicija, pa \u010dak ni klimatske promjene u ovom trenutku\u00a0nisu prioriteti, ono \u0161to je u ovom trenutku potpuno jasno\u00a0jest\u00a0da je globalna zdravstvena kriza otkrila slabe karike u me\u0111unarodnoj suradnji i upravljanju energetskim sustavom.\u00a0\u0160to \u0107e, pak, donijeti u kontekstu budu\u0107ih geopoliti\u010dkih odnosa, tek \u0107emo vidjeti.<\/p>\n

Stoga napravimo vlastitu inventuru. Koji su doma\u0107i energetski kapaciteti? Koliko prirodnih OIE potencijala jo\u0161 nismo ni po\u010deli koristiti? Na \u0161to se u svakom slu\u010daju mo\u017eemo osloniti? Kako o\u010duvati osnovne vitalne gospodarske i dru\u0161tvene procese u trenucima kada\u00a0shit hits the fan? <\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Autorica: mr. sc. Maja Pokrovac, direktorica gospodarskog udru\u017eenja Obnovljivi izvori energije Hrvatske (OIEH) Sad nam…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":29383,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[484],"tags":[5487,5273,5349,2345],"class_list":["post-29136","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-u-fokusu","tag-covid-19","tag-maja-pokrovac","tag-solarpower-europe","tag-windeurope","country-hrvatska"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nKada shit hits the fan<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u010cini se da \u0107e globalna gospodarska kriza uzrokovana koronavirusom, kako pokazuju brojna istra\u017eivanja, potaknuti smanjenje emisija uglji\u010dnog 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